# politic.design: every article in Markdown License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well. --- title: "The 2026 midterms, in data" url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/ publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic) published: 2026-11-05 updated: 2026-11-06 license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) credit: "Source: politic.design" data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/data.json pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/midterms-2026.pdf --- The issue · Midterms 2026 · 5–6 Nov # The 2026 *midterms*, in data Democrats won the House vote by 12 to 14 points, the widest midterm margin since 1974. Five stories on who moved it, why, where it won seats, and who filled the hall. House popular vote D+12–14 Widest midterm margin since 1974. Final polls said about D+9. House seats 256–60 43 seats flipped to D, 2 to R (CBS, 5 Nov). 218 for a majority. Senate 54–56 7 R seats flipped (IA, KS, ME, NC, OH, SC, TX). AK and MS still counting. Turnout 48.8% 122.7m ballots. Second-highest midterm turnout in a century. Trump approval 37% Lowest midterm approval for a president since at least 2006. Ad spending $11.2bn A record. Republicans outspent Democrats, $5.18bn to $4.77bn. In this issue ## In this issue [ Story 1 · Groups · 2.5D**Weight Transfer**Young and Hispanic voters moved furthest. The national balance moved mostly because white voters, men and people in their 30s and 40s moved, because there are more of them.](https://politic.design/midterms-2026/weight-transfer/)[ Story 2 · Motive · 2D**The Receipt**Voters handed the president an itemised bill: tariffs, Iran, prices, enforcement. The news covered the items in a different order from the one voters ranked them in.](https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/)[ Story 3 · Seats · 3D**The Blue Wave**Democrats took every Republican seat Trump won by less than ten points, and a few the tide should never have reached. Most of those few were in states that had just redrawn their maps to add Republican seats.](https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/)[ Story 4 · Place · 3D**The Borderlands**Texas swung 26 points in two years and every one of its 254 counties moved the same way. The border moved furthest.](https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/)[ Story 5 · Turnout · 3D**Who Won the Convention**About six points of the Democrats' margin came from who showed up. The rest came from voters who changed sides or were voting for the first time.](https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/)[ Feature · Who won**Many Streams, One Chamber**The heritage and gender of this year's winners, and how much they won by.](https://politic.design/midterms-2026/representation/)[ Brand Truth · Brantopic**The Midterms as a Brand**Twelve media claims checked against the data: 9 stand, 2 fail, 1 is weak.](https://politic.design/midterms-2026/brand-truth/) Why this gazette exists politic.design is a showcase made by [Brantopic](https://brantopic.com/). It runs the tools Brantopic uses for companies (watching markets, industries and trending topics, and putting a source on every number) on a subject everyone can check. [Read what it is, and what it is not](https://politic.design/about/). ## The data behind this page ### Data: senate_flips The seven Republican-held Senate seats Democrats flipped. Source: Wikipedia race pages, 6 Nov 2026. | state | winner | votes | margin | |---|---|---|---| | ME | Troy Jackson | 374585 | D+6.4 | | IA | Josh Turek | 686487 | D+4.1 | | OH | Sherrod Brown | 2301042 | D+4.9 | | TX | James Talarico | 5445156 | D+12.1 | | NC | Roy Cooper | 2467963 | D+19.6 | | SC | Annie Andrews | 1042362 | D+4.5 | | KS | Adam Hamilton | 559853 | D+5.0 | --- ## License and credit Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well. Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/data.json --- title: "Weight Transfer" url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/weight-transfer/ publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic) published: 2026-11-05 updated: 2026-11-06 license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) credit: "Source: politic.design" data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/weight-transfer/data.json pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/weight-transfer/weight-transfer.pdf --- Story 1 of 5 · Groups · 2.5D · Midterms 2026 # Weight Transfer Young and Hispanic voters moved furthest. The national balance moved mostly because white voters, men and people in their 30s and 40s moved, because there are more of them. By the politic.design data desk · 5 Nov 2026, updated 6 Nov 2026 · Preliminary counts The national margin is a balance point. Put every group on a ruler at its margin, give each a weight equal to its share of voters, and the point where the ruler balances is the country's margin. That is the whole chart. Between 2024 and this week every weight slid left, and the balance point moved about 15 points, from R+2 to D+13. Seen that way, the size of a swing and its effect come apart. Under-30s moved 33 points but carry a ninth of the weight, so they pushed the balance about 3.6 points. White voters moved 12 points, but at 73% of the electorate that pushed it nearly 9. Men moved the balance more than women (8.5 points against 6.9), and voters aged 30 to 44 more than any other age group. - Men went from about R+16 in 2024 to D+2: an 18-point move, the biggest of any large group. - Under-30s: D+8 to D+41. Hispanic voters: D+11 to D+40, undoing all of Trump's 2024 gain. - Black voters moved 10 points back, to about D+83. White voters moved 12, from R+16 to R+4. - 65-plus barely moved (6 points) and sits almost exactly on the national balance of 2024. **Data:** Group margins for 2020 and 2024 (presidential) and 2026 (House) as published in the reference chart, read to about a point. Weights are 2026 shares from the NBC News/SSRS exit poll. **Key finding:** "Under-30s swung 33 points, but white voters moved the national balance nearly three times as far." How swings are usually drawn, and what each one leaves out **Shift arrows on maps**The wind maps newspapers draw by county. They show direction and size by place, but a near-empty county gets as long an arrow as a city. **Hairpins, dumbbells, arrow dot plots**Good for change by group. Every group looks equally heavy, so a group of 4% reads like one of 73%. **Slopegraphs**Clear for two moments and a few lines; tangled past six groups or three elections. **Swingometers**The BBC's dial, and the what-if simulators from Cook and FiveThirtyEight. One national number, or a hypothetical, not what happened. **Voter-flow diagrams**The Sankey charts of German and French election nights. They show who switched, but need panel data the US rarely has. **Ours: weight transfer**Shows how far each group moved and how much that moved the country, on one ruler, with the national margin as the balance point. The arithmetic is exact: the balance is the share-weighted average. ### The tipping scale **In short:** A see-saw with its pivot at a tied vote. Each group is a weight: bigger groups weigh more, and groups sitting far from the middle press harder, the way a child at the end of a see-saw does. The beam tips toward the party the country chose; the amber diamond is where it would balance. Hover or tap a weight. Margins are presidential for 2020 and 2024 and House for 2026, read from the reference chart to about a point. Weights hold the 2026 electorate fixed, so each beam's balance point is the share-weighted average of its groups (D+11 to D+13 in 2026, against about D+13 measured), and the coloured bar segments add up exactly to how far it moved. The tilt is drawn from each beam's turning force around Even (share × margin), capped at 6 degrees. ### The ballot: who filled in the 15 points **In short:** The Democrats' gain since 2024, counted as filled bubbles. Each bubble is half a point of the national margin, and its colour is the group that filled it. A long row is a group that moved the country, not just one that moved a lot. Each row is the group's swing since 2024 multiplied by its share of 2026 voters, in points of national margin, rounded to the nearest half point. Gender, race and age slice the same voters three ways, so each contest adds up to the whole swing on its own (15.4, 14.2 and 15.0 points; the gaps are rounding and changes in who turned out). ## The data behind this page ### Data: groups Each group's margin and its share of 2026 voters; the national margin is the share-weighted balance point. Source: Group margins for 2020 and 2024 (presidential) and 2026 (House) as published in the reference exit-poll chart, read to about a point; 2026 shares from the NBC News/SSRS exit poll. | group | category | margin_2020_pres | margin_2026_house | swing_since_2024 | share_of_2026_voters_pct | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | All voters | All | 4.4 | 13.1 | 15 | 100 | | Men | Gender | -5.7 | 2.1 | 18 | 47 | | Women | Gender | 12.8 | 21.8 | 13 | 53 | | White | Race | -13.1 | -4.3 | 12 | 73 | | Black | Race | 82.2 | 83.1 | 10 | 9 | | Hispanic | Race | 30.3 | 39.7 | 29 | 10 | | Asian | Race | 36.5 | 40.9 | 18 | 4 | | Other | Race | 2.1 | 19.8 | 18 | 5 | | 18–29 | Age | 25.9 | 41.1 | 33 | 11 | | 30–44 | Age | 10 | 26.2 | 24 | 20 | | 45–64 | Age | -4.6 | 3.9 | 13 | 34 | | 65+ | Age | -1 | 4.1 | 6 | 36 | --- ## License and credit Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well. Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/weight-transfer/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/weight-transfer/data.json --- title: "The Receipt" url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/ publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic) published: 2026-11-05 updated: 2026-11-06 license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) credit: "Source: politic.design" data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/data.json pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/the-receipt.pdf --- Story 2 of 5 · Motive · 2D · Midterms 2026 # The Receipt Voters handed the president an itemised bill: tariffs, Iran, prices, enforcement. The news covered the items in a different order from the one voters ranked them in. By the politic.design data desk · 5 Nov 2026, updated 6 Nov 2026 · Preliminary counts Exit polls read like a receipt. Two-thirds of voters said tariffs hurt the economy, and they voted Democratic 81–18. Nearly two-thirds called military action against Iran the wrong decision (83–15). Four in ten said their family was worse off than two years ago (75–23). Only 37% approved of the president. The second half of the story is Brantopic's. We ran its news collector over 90 days of US coverage (GDELT, 5 August to 4 November) for each item on the bill, and its anomaly gate, the same one that tells a client when coverage of their brand is unusual, flagged the days each issue broke out. That puts newsroom attention beside voter priority. The test: did coverage track what voters say decided their vote, or what campaigns paid to put on air? The kerb chart covers the persuadable middle: the groups still within six points of even. In a 13-point national win, the close groups were men, people over 45, Catholics, voters with some college, and voters whose finances hadn't changed. These are the groups 2028 will be fought over. **Data:** NBC News/SSRS exit poll; AP Voter Poll; GDELT DOC 2.0 through Brantopic's collector and quasi-Poisson detector. **Key finding:** "Voters who said tariffs hurt the economy, two in three of the electorate, backed Democrats 81–18." ### The bill **In short:** What each issue cost or earned Republicans, in votes. Voters named their top issue; each line is that issue's share of voters times how lopsidedly they voted. Issues that cost Republicans are charges, issues that won them votes are credits, and the total is the Democrats' winning margin. #### Running total, issue by issue #### Also on the tab · not added up, voters could tick several ### The kerb: who was still close **In short:** Each dot is a group of voters; the further left, the more Democratic. Groups inside the shaded strip were within six points of a tie, so they're still up for grabs in 2028. Bigger dots are bigger groups. ### What the news covered, from Brantopic **In short:** One cover per issue; hover a cover for a preview, or click or tap it to open the chart large. The line behind each cover is how much of the US news mentioned it each day from August to election day; amber dots are days Brantopic flagged as unusually busy. The line under the title is how much voters said the issue mattered. Coverage counts from GDELT DOC 2.0, collected by Brantopic. ## The data behind this page ### Data: bill Net votes each top issue cost or earned Republicans: share naming it x 122.7M ballots x (D% - R%). Source: NBC News/SSRS exit poll, 3 Nov 2026. | issue | named_top_issue_pct | dem_pct | rep_pct | net_dem_votes_millions | |---|---|---|---|---| | State of democracy | 33 | 79 | 20 | 23.9 | | The economy | 39 | 52 | 46 | 2.9 | | Immigration | 14 | 10 | 89 | -13.6 | | Healthcare | 8 | 67 | 31 | 3.5 | | Foreign policy | 4 | 47 | 50 | -0.1 | | Crime | 3 | 19 | 79 | -2.2 | ### Data: ballots_cast_millions Ballots used to price the bill. Source: Projected national turnout. Full data in the JSON file: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/data.json (dataset "ballots_cast_millions"). ### Data: also_on_the_tab Items voters could tick several of; not added into the bill. Source: NBC News/SSRS exit poll. | item | voters_pct | dem_pct | rep_pct | |---|---|---|---| | Corruption a crucial or major factor | 91 | | | | Cost of living a crucial or major factor | 89 | | | | Economy "not so good" or "poor" | 75 | 70 | 28 | | Tariffs hurt the economy | 66 | 81 | 18 | | Iran strikes: the wrong decision | 63 | 83 | 15 | | Immigration enforcement gone too far | 58 | 90 | 8 | | Finances worse than two years ago | 44 | 75 | 23 | ### Data: kerb House margin by swing group (who was still close). Source: NBC News/SSRS exit poll. | group | share_pct | dem_pct | rep_pct | margin | |---|---|---|---|---| | Didn’t vote in 2024 | 4 | 70 | 25 | 45 | | Moderates | 41 | 66 | 32 | 34 | | First-time midterm voters | 9 | 65 | 33 | 32 | | Suburban | 45 | 59 | 40 | 19 | | Independents | 33 | 58 | 38 | 20 | | Latino men | 5 | 58 | 39 | 19 | | Iran war a major factor | 40 | 58 | 41 | 17 | | White men, college grad | 17 | 55 | 43 | 12 | | Income $50k–99k | 31 | 54 | 45 | 9 | | White women | 38 | 52 | 46 | 6 | | Economy the top issue | 39 | 52 | 46 | 6 | | Ages 45–64 | 34 | 52 | 47 | 5 | | Men | 47 | 50 | 48 | 2 | | Some college, no degree | 19 | 50 | 48 | 2 | | Catholics | 20 | 50 | 49 | 1 | | Ages 65+ | 36 | 50 | 50 | 0 | | Associate’s degree | 11 | 49 | 49 | 0 | | Foreign policy the top issue | 4 | 47 | 50 | -3 | | Finances about the same | 38 | 46 | 52 | -6 | | White men | 35 | 45 | 53 | -8 | | White women, no degree | 19 | 41 | 57 | -16 | | Small town or rural | 35 | 41 | 57 | -16 | | Somewhat disapprove of Trump | 8 | 33 | 63 | -30 | ### Data: coverage_summary 90 days of US news coverage per topic, collected by Brantopic. Source: GDELT DOC 2.0 TimelineVolRaw via Brantopic. | topic | query | articles | share_of_news_pct | busy_day_flags | |---|---|---|---|---| | tariffs | (tariff OR tariffs) sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 24391 | 0.317 | 0 | | iran | ("Iran war" OR "strikes on Iran" OR "war with Iran") sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 26215 | 0.34 | 1 | | cost_of_living | ("cost of living" OR inflation OR "grocery prices") sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 39954 | 0.519 | 2 | | immigration | (deportation OR deportations OR "immigration enforcement") sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 10213 | 0.133 | 1 | | corruption | (corruption OR bribery OR "pay to play") sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 10515 | 0.137 | 2 | | midterms | (midterm OR midterms) sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 43584 | 0.566 | 2 | | democracy | ("threat to democracy" OR "rule of law" OR authoritarian) sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 5712 | 0.074 | 2 | ### Data: coverage_daily Daily article counts per topic (n) and all US articles that day (t), with Brantopic's busy-day flags. Source: GDELT DOC 2.0 TimelineVolRaw via Brantopic. Full data in the JSON file: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/data.json (dataset "coverage_daily"). ### Data: peak_headlines Top headlines on each topic's busiest day. Source: GDELT DOC 2.0 via Brantopic. Full data in the JSON file: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/data.json (dataset "peak_headlines"). --- ## License and credit Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well. Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/data.json --- title: "The Blue Wave" url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/ publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic) published: 2026-11-05 updated: 2026-11-06 license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) credit: "Source: politic.design" data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/data.json pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/blue-wave.pdf --- Story 3 of 5 · Seats · 3D · Midterms 2026 # The Blue Wave Democrats took every Republican seat Trump won by less than ten points, and a few the tide should never have reached. Most of those few were in states that had just redrawn their maps to add Republican seats. By the politic.design data desk · 5 Nov 2026, updated 6 Nov 2026 · Preliminary counts Line up the 220 Republican-held districts by how much Trump won them by in 2024, on the lines used this year, and the result reads like a tide chart. The national swing since 2024 is about 15 points, which on a uniform swing puts 54 Republican seats under water. Democrats have taken all 28 that Trump won by less than ten points (or that Harris carried), 7 of the 26 he won by 10 to 14, and none of the safer seats except eight. The seats that beat the tide are the story. Of the eight flips in districts Trump won by 15 or more, six are in North Carolina and Texas, both of which redrew their maps in 2025 to add Republican seats: North Carolina's 6th, 9th, 13th and 14th, and Texas's 15th and 23rd. Spreading Republican voters thinly across more seats leaves each with a smaller cushion, so a big enough wave goes over all of them at once. Across the four states that redrew for the GOP (Texas, North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri), Democrats made 11 of their 43 gains. - California's Prop 50 map did what it was drawn to do: Democrats took CA-01, CA-06, CA-22, CA-41 and CA-48. - Senate: Democrats flipped seats in states Trump won by 12 points on average. The last midterm with more than two such flips was 1986. - Polling miss: final averages had Democrats near D+9; the count is heading to D+12–14. In Texas, Talarico led by 2.6 in the polls and won by 12. **Data:** The Downballot's 2024 presidential results on the 2026 district lines; CBS News's list of flipped seats (5 Nov). At certification: AP results for every race. **Key finding:** "Democrats flipped all 28 Republican-held seats that Trump won by less than ten points; six of their eight gains beyond Trump+15 came in North Carolina and Texas, which had just redrawn their maps." ### A city under the blue wave **In short:** Each tower is a Republican-held House seat. The taller it is, the more Trump won it by in 2024. The sea is the national swing toward Democrats: anything above the water stays Republican red, towers under water are seats that swing could flip, and blue towers are the ones that actually flipped. Amber roofs are states that redrew their maps for the GOP. National swing from 202415 pts drag to turn · hover a tower Flipped to DemocratsStill Republican above the waterUnder water, not flipped (held or uncalled)Redrawn map Uniform-swing reading: a seat is under water when the national shift since 2024 is bigger than Trump's 2024 margin there. Towers are laid out shortest at the shore, tallest inland; streets and positions are for legibility only. Flips from CBS News's list as of 5 Nov; dozens of races were still uncalled. ## The data behind this page ### Data: districts Republican-held House seats with Trump's 2024 margin on the 2026 lines and the 2026 result. Source: The Downballot 2024 presidential margins on 2026 lines; CBS News flip list (5 Nov 2026). | district | margin_2024_pres | flip_2026 | redrawn_map | incumbent | |---|---|---|---|---| | AK-AL | -13.0 | | False | Nick Begich | | AL-01 | -36.0 | | False | Barry Moore | | AL-03 | -47.0 | | False | Mike Rogers | | AL-04 | -66.0 | | False | Robert Aderholt | | AL-05 | -29.0 | | False | Dale Strong | | AL-06 | -35.0 | | False | Gary Palmer | | AR-01 | -45.0 | | False | Rick Crawford | | AR-02 | -16.0 | | False | French Hill | | AR-03 | -25.0 | | False | Steve Womack | | AR-04 | -40.0 | | False | Bruce Westerman | | AZ-01 | -3.0 | D | False | David Schweikert | | AZ-02 | -15.0 | | False | Eli Crane | | AZ-05 | -20.0 | | False | Andy Biggs | | AZ-06 | -1.0 | D | False | Juan Ciscomani | | AZ-08 | -16.0 | | False | Abe Hamadeh | | AZ-09 | -31.0 | | False | Paul Gosar | | CA-01 | 12.0 | D | False | James Gallagher | | CA-05 | -21.0 | | False | Tom McClintock | | CA-06 | 8.0 | D | False | Ami Bera | | CA-20 | -32.0 | | False | Vince Fong | | CA-22 | -2.0 | D | False | David Valadao | | CA-23 | -19.0 | | False | Jay Obernolte | | CA-40 | -12.0 | | False | Young Kim | | CA-41 | 14.0 | D | False | Ken Calvert | | CA-48 | 3.0 | D | False | Darrell Issa | | CO-03 | -10.0 | | False | Jeff Hurd | | CO-04 | -18.0 | | False | Lauren Boebert | | CO-05 | -9.0 | D | False | Jeff Crank | | CO-08 | -2.0 | D | False | Gabe Evans | | FL-01 | -37.0 | | False | Jimmy Patronis | | FL-02 | -18.0 | | False | Neal Dunn | | FL-03 | -21.0 | | False | Kat Cammack | | FL-04 | -12.0 | | False | Aaron Bean | | FL-05 | -21.0 | | False | John Rutherford | | FL-06 | -30.0 | | False | Randy Fine | | FL-07 | -12.0 | | False | Cory Mills | | FL-08 | -16.0 | | False | Mike Haridopolos | | FL-11 | -16.0 | | False | Daniel Webster | | FL-12 | -15.0 | | False | Gus Bilirakis | | FL-13 | -13.0 | | False | Anna Paulina Luna | | FL-15 | -20.0 | | False | Laurel Lee | | FL-16 | -14.0 | | False | Vern Buchanan | | FL-17 | -22.0 | | False | Greg Steube | | FL-18 | -17.0 | | False | Scott Franklin | | FL-19 | -30.0 | | False | Byron Donalds | | FL-21 | -16.0 | | False | Brian Mast | | FL-26 | -18.0 | | False | Mario Diaz-Balart | | FL-27 | -15.0 | | False | Maria Elvira Salazar | | FL-28 | -25.0 | | False | Carlos Gimenez | | GA-01 | -16.0 | | False | Buddy Carter | | GA-03 | -30.0 | | False | Brian Jack | | GA-07 | -22.0 | | False | Rich McCormick | | GA-08 | -31.0 | | False | Austin Scott | | GA-09 | -34.0 | | False | Andrew Clyde | | GA-10 | -21.0 | | False | Mike Collins | | GA-11 | -23.0 | | False | Barry Loudermilk | | GA-12 | -14.0 | | False | Rick Allen | | GA-14 | -37.0 | | False | Clay Fuller | | IA-01 | -8.0 | D | False | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | | IA-02 | -10.0 | D | False | Ashley Hinson | | IA-03 | -4.0 | D | False | Zach Nunn | | IA-04 | -31.0 | | False | Randy Feenstra | | ID-01 | -45.0 | | False | Russ Fulcher | | ID-02 | -27.0 | | False | Mike Simpson | | IL-12 | -43.0 | | False | Mike Bost | | IL-15 | -40.0 | | False | Mary Miller | | IL-16 | -23.0 | | False | Darin LaHood | | IN-02 | -27.0 | | False | Rudy Yakym | | IN-03 | -31.0 | | False | Marlin Stutzman | | IN-04 | -29.0 | | False | Jim Baird | | IN-05 | -17.0 | D | False | Victoria Spartz | | IN-06 | -33.0 | | False | Jefferson Shreve | | IN-08 | -36.0 | | False | Mark Messmer | | IN-09 | -30.0 | | False | Erin Houchin | | KS-01 | -31.0 | | False | Tracey Mann | | KS-02 | -20.0 | | False | Derek Schmidt | | KS-04 | -23.0 | | False | Ron Estes | | KY-01 | -47.0 | | False | James Comer | | KY-02 | -41.0 | | False | Brett Guthrie | | KY-04 | -36.0 | | False | Thomas Massie | | KY-05 | -64.0 | | False | Hal Rogers | | KY-06 | -15.0 | D | False | Andy Barr | | LA-01 | -38.0 | | False | Steve Scalise | | LA-03 | -36.0 | | False | Clay Higgins | | LA-04 | -34.0 | | False | Mike Johnson | | LA-05 | -34.0 | | False | Julia Letlow | | MD-01 | -17.0 | | False | Andy Harris | | MI-01 | -21.0 | | False | Jack Bergman | | MI-02 | -30.0 | | False | John Moolenaar | | MI-04 | -6.0 | D | False | Bill Huizenga | | MI-05 | -27.0 | | False | Tim Walberg | | MI-07 | -1.0 | D | False | Tom Barrett | | MI-09 | -32.0 | | False | Lisa McClain | | MI-10 | -7.0 | D | False | John James | | MN-01 | -12.0 | | False | Brad Finstad | | MN-06 | -20.0 | | False | Tom Emmer | | MN-07 | -36.0 | | False | Michelle Fischbach | | MN-08 | -14.0 | | False | Pete Stauber | | MO-02 | -8.0 | D | True | Ann Wagner | | MO-03 | -27.0 | | True | Bob Onder | | MO-04 | -42.0 | | True | Mark Alford | | MO-06 | -39.0 | | True | Sam Graves | | MO-07 | -43.0 | | True | Eric Burlison | | MO-08 | -54.0 | | True | Jason Smith | | MS-01 | -37.0 | | False | Trent Kelly | | MS-03 | -29.0 | | False | Michael Guest | | MS-04 | -43.0 | | False | Mike Ezell | | MT-01 | -12.0 | D | False | Ryan Zinke | | MT-02 | -30.0 | | False | Troy Downing | | NC-03 | -14.0 | | True | Greg Murphy | | NC-05 | -18.0 | | True | Virginia Foxx | | NC-06 | -17.0 | D | True | Addison McDowell | | NC-07 | -14.0 | | True | David Rouzer | | NC-08 | -19.0 | | True | Mark Harris | | NC-09 | -16.0 | D | True | Richard Hudson | | NC-10 | -18.0 | | True | Pat Harrigan | | NC-11 | -10.0 | D | True | Chuck Edwards | | NC-13 | -16.0 | D | True | Brad Knott | | NC-14 | -15.0 | D | True | Tim Moore | | ND-AL | -37.0 | | False | Julie Fedorchak | | NE-01 | -13.0 | | False | Mike Flood | | NE-02 | 5.0 | D | False | Don Bacon | | NE-03 | -54.0 | | False | Adrian Smith | | NJ-02 | -13.0 | D | False | Jeff Van Drew | | NJ-04 | -30.0 | | False | Chris Smith | | NJ-07 | -1.0 | D | False | Tom Kean | | NV-02 | -14.0 | D | False | Mark Amodei | | NY-01 | -10.0 | | False | Nick LaLota | | NY-02 | -14.0 | | False | Andrew Garbarino | | NY-11 | -24.0 | | False | Nicole Malliotakis | | NY-17 | 1.0 | D | False | Mike Lawler | | NY-21 | -21.0 | | False | Elise Stefanik | | NY-23 | -21.0 | | False | Nick Langworthy | | NY-24 | -23.0 | | False | Claudia Tenney | | OH-02 | -42.0 | | True | David Taylor | | OH-04 | -43.0 | | True | Jim Jordan | | OH-05 | -24.0 | | True | Bob Latta | | OH-06 | -35.0 | | True | Michael Rulli | | OH-07 | -11.0 | D | True | Max Miller | | OH-08 | -16.0 | | True | Warren Davidson | | OH-10 | -8.0 | D | True | Mike Turner | | OH-12 | -30.0 | | True | Troy Balderson | | OH-14 | -20.0 | | True | Dave Joyce | | OH-15 | -10.0 | D | True | Mike Carey | | OK-01 | -22.0 | | False | Kevin Hern | | OK-02 | -56.0 | | False | Josh Brecheen | | OK-03 | -46.0 | | False | Frank Lucas | | OK-04 | -33.0 | | False | Tom Cole | | OK-05 | -18.0 | | False | Stephanie Bice | | OR-02 | -27.0 | | False | Cliff Bentz | | PA-01 | 0.0 | D | False | Brian Fitzpatrick | | PA-07 | -3.0 | D | False | Ryan Mackenzie | | PA-08 | -9.0 | D | False | Rob Bresnahan | | PA-09 | -38.0 | | False | Dan Meuser | | PA-10 | -5.0 | D | False | Scott Perry | | PA-11 | -21.0 | | False | Lloyd Smucker | | PA-13 | -46.0 | | False | John Joyce | | PA-14 | -33.0 | | False | Guy Reschenthaler | | PA-15 | -38.0 | | False | Glenn Thompson | | PA-16 | -23.0 | | False | Mike Kelly | | SC-01 | -13.0 | | False | Nancy Mace | | SC-02 | -14.0 | | False | Joe Wilson | | SC-03 | -43.0 | | False | Sheri Biggs | | SC-04 | -24.0 | | False | William Timmons | | SC-05 | -23.0 | | False | Ralph Norman | | SC-07 | -26.0 | | False | Russell Fry | | SD-AL | -29.0 | | False | Dusty Johnson | | TN-01 | -58.0 | | False | Diana Harshbarger | | TN-02 | -34.0 | | False | Tim Burchett | | TN-03 | -36.0 | | False | Chuck Fleischmann | | TN-04 | -24.0 | | False | Scott DesJarlais | | TN-05 | -23.0 | | False | Andy Ogles | | TN-06 | -27.0 | | False | John Rose | | TN-07 | -22.0 | | False | Matt Van Epps | | TN-08 | -20.0 | | False | David Kustoff | | TX-01 | -50.0 | | True | Nathaniel Moran | | TX-02 | -23.0 | | True | Dan Crenshaw | | TX-03 | -23.0 | | True | Keith Self | | TX-04 | -25.0 | | True | Pat Fallon | | TX-05 | -22.0 | | True | Lance Gooden | | TX-06 | -23.0 | | True | Jake Ellzey | | TX-08 | -28.0 | | True | Morgan Luttrell | | TX-10 | -23.0 | | True | Michael McCaul | | TX-11 | -34.0 | | True | August Pfluger | | TX-12 | -24.0 | | True | Craig Goldman | | TX-13 | -46.0 | | True | Ronny Jackson | | TX-14 | -24.0 | | True | Randy Weber | | TX-15 | -18.0 | D | True | Monica De La Cruz | | TX-17 | -22.0 | | True | Pete Sessions | | TX-19 | -52.0 | | True | Jodey Arrington | | TX-21 | -22.0 | | True | Chip Roy | | TX-22 | -22.0 | | True | Troy Nehls | | TX-23 | -15.0 | D | True | VACANT (Gonzales) | | TX-24 | -16.0 | | True | Beth Van Duyne | | TX-25 | -24.0 | | True | Roger Williams | | TX-26 | -24.0 | | True | Brandon Gill | | TX-27 | -21.0 | | True | Michael Cloud | | TX-31 | -22.0 | | True | John Carter | | TX-36 | -25.0 | | True | Brian Babin | | TX-38 | -21.0 | | True | Wesley Hunt | | UT-01 | 24.0 | D | False | Blake Moore | | UT-02 | -29.0 | | False | Celeste Maloy | | UT-03 | -41.0 | | False | Mike Kennedy | | UT-04 | -33.0 | | False | Burgess Owens | | VA-01 | -5.0 | D | False | Rob Wittman | | VA-02 | 0.0 | D | False | Jen Kiggans | | VA-05 | -12.0 | | False | John McGuire | | VA-06 | -24.0 | | False | Ben Cline | | VA-09 | -44.0 | | False | Morgan Griffith | | WA-04 | -21.0 | | False | Dan Newhouse | | WA-05 | -11.0 | | False | Michael Baumgartner | | WI-01 | -5.0 | D | False | Bryan Steil | | WI-03 | -7.0 | D | False | Derrick Van Orden | | WI-05 | -22.0 | | False | Scott Fitzgerald | | WI-06 | -16.0 | | False | Glenn Grothman | | WI-07 | -23.0 | | False | Tom Tiffany | | WI-08 | -16.0 | | False | Tony Wied | | WV-01 | -44.0 | | False | Carol Miller | | WV-02 | -40.0 | | False | Riley Moore | | WY-AL | -46.0 | | False | Harriet Hageman | Receipts (content hashes of the source files): sha256:9e3e17c73411c163 --- ## License and credit Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well. Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/data.json --- title: "The Borderlands" url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/ publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic) published: 2026-11-05 updated: 2026-11-06 license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) credit: "Source: politic.design" data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/data.json pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/borderlands.pdf --- Story 4 of 5 · Place · 3D · Midterms 2026 # The Borderlands Texas swung 26 points in two years and every one of its 254 counties moved the same way. The border moved furthest. By the politic.design data desk · 5 Nov 2026, updated 6 Nov 2026 · Preliminary counts Trump won Texas by 13.7 points in 2024. On Tuesday James Talarico won its Senate seat by 12.1, by Decision Desk HQ's count, the first Democratic Senate win there since 1988. All 254 counties moved towards the Democrats. In Starr County the margin went from Trump +16 to Talarico +56, a 72-point swing. The four Rio Grande Valley counties went from R+4 to D+44 between them, and cast 41% more ballots than in the 2022 midterm. It wasn't only the border. Twenty-eight counties flipped from Trump to Talarico, including Tarrant, Collin and Denton in the Dallas–Fort Worth suburbs and Brazoria and Jefferson on the Gulf coast. The smallest swings, six to eight points, came in the Panhandle. The open question is durability: the same valley swung hard the other way in 2024. With certified files we'll extend the relief back to 2016, so readers see a cycle rather than a single turn. **Data:** Decision Desk HQ county results (2026 Senate, 2024 President, 2022 turnout); us-atlas county shapes. The comparison is Senate against President, so some of the swing is the candidates. 41 counties were still counting on 5 Nov. **Key finding:** "Every one of Texas's 254 counties swung towards the Democrats in 2026; Starr County moved 72 points in two years." ### Texas, raised by its swing **In short:** Each county is lifted by how far it moved toward Democrats between the 2024 presidential vote and this week's Senate vote. Taller means a bigger swing; colour shows who won it this time. Every county rose. Drag to turn; hover or tap a county. drag to rotate Decision Desk HQ county results as of 5–6 Nov. Swing = 2026 Senate margin minus 2024 presidential margin, in points. ## The data behind this page ### Data: counties Every Texas county: 2024 presidential and 2026 Senate margins (positive = Democratic), swing and ballots. Source: Decision Desk HQ county results (TX US Senate 2026, President 2024), us-atlas counties-10m. | fips | county | margin_2024_pres | margin_2026_senate | swing | turnout_2022 | turnout_2024 | turnout_2026 | count_complete | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 471 | Walker | -39.9 | -19.1 | 20.9 | 17347 | 25170 | 21628 | True | | 047 | Brooks | 9.6 | 40.5 | 30.9 | 1951 | 2402 | 1813 | True | | 117 | Deaf Smith | -51.7 | -15.0 | 36.6 | 2703 | 4286 | 3523 | True | | 219 | Hockley | -66.3 | -45.9 | 20.4 | 5341 | 7987 | 6440 | True | | 417 | Shackelford | -82.2 | -74.0 | 8.2 | 1039 | 1727 | 1279 | True | | 451 | Tom Green | -48.0 | -26.9 | 21.1 | 30744 | 45438 | 36169 | False | | 497 | Wise | -70.0 | -52.3 | 17.8 | 27244 | 38230 | 30972 | False | | 101 | Cottle | -72.5 | -60.4 | 12.1 | 494 | 657 | 535 | True | | 441 | Taylor | -49.8 | -31.1 | 18.7 | 37163 | 55386 | 42673 | True | | 011 | Armstrong | -85.8 | -75.6 | 10.2 | 816 | 1109 | 862 | True | | 233 | Hutchinson | -77.2 | -60.2 | 17.0 | 5669 | 8241 | 6061 | True | | 235 | Irion | -75.6 | -66.6 | 9.0 | 648 | 868 | 643 | True | | 335 | Mitchell | -71.3 | -60.2 | 11.1 | 1678 | 2513 | 1861 | True | | 501 | Yoakum | -70.9 | -37.8 | 33.1 | 1456 | 2393 | 1774 | True | | 075 | Childress | -76.1 | -61.8 | 14.2 | 1608 | 2272 | 1685 | True | | 171 | Gillespie | -60.9 | -46.6 | 14.4 | 13549 | 16482 | 14747 | False | | 125 | Dickens | -70.3 | -58.7 | 11.6 | 728 | 993 | 748 | True | | 283 | La Salle | -20.5 | 16.8 | 37.4 | 1453 | 2360 | 1858 | True | | 195 | Hansford | -84.8 | -64.2 | 20.6 | 1407 | 1999 | 1509 | True | | 375 | Potter | -44.4 | -19.1 | 25.4 | 20971 | 32091 | 25673 | True | | 145 | Falls | -44.7 | -28.5 | 16.2 | 4599 | 6276 | 4925 | True | | 193 | Hamilton | -71.3 | -58.5 | 12.8 | 3350 | 4464 | 3561 | True | | 399 | Runnels | -77.1 | -63.0 | 14.1 | 3089 | 4056 | 3169 | True | | 189 | Hale | -58.0 | -29.7 | 28.3 | 5876 | 9278 | 7536 | True | | 407 | San Jacinto | -65.3 | -49.9 | 15.4 | 9376 | 12789 | 10407 | False | | 131 | Duval | -9.8 | 36.7 | 46.5 | 3678 | 4461 | 3280 | True | | 341 | Moore | -67.1 | -30.6 | 36.5 | 3345 | 5359 | 4111 | True | | 317 | Martin | -75.8 | -58.9 | 16.8 | 1409 | 2083 | 1478 | True | | 293 | Limestone | -56.9 | -36.5 | 20.3 | 6570 | 9069 | 7245 | True | | 507 | Zavala | 14.4 | 50.6 | 36.2 | 2464 | 3492 | 3078 | False | | 079 | Cochran | -65.7 | -36.0 | 29.7 | 418 | 893 | 694 | True | | 151 | Fisher | -63.3 | -51.1 | 12.1 | 1320 | 1829 | 1406 | True | | 023 | Baylor | -77.1 | -65.7 | 11.4 | 1202 | 1670 | 1204 | True | | 365 | Panola | -66.4 | -52.7 | 13.7 | 8083 | 11437 | 8560 | True | | 237 | Jack | -82.3 | -68.8 | 13.5 | 3006 | 4201 | 3392 | True | | 099 | Coryell | -40.7 | -19.3 | 21.4 | 15814 | 23911 | 18846 | True | | 295 | Lipscomb | -79.6 | -67.5 | 12.1 | 929 | 1259 | 933 | True | | 129 | Donley | -78.2 | -66.4 | 11.8 | 1108 | 1712 | 1265 | True | | 013 | Atascosa | -43.3 | -14.9 | 28.4 | 12566 | 18442 | 14529 | True | | 045 | Briscoe | -79.8 | -70.1 | 9.7 | 556 | 744 | 592 | True | | 175 | Goliad | -60.2 | -47.0 | 13.3 | 3331 | 3984 | 3350 | True | | 179 | Gray | -77.1 | -57.8 | 19.3 | 5193 | 7580 | 5498 | True | | 191 | Hall | -73.4 | -61.0 | 12.4 | 820 | 1149 | 826 | True | | 049 | Brown | -73.9 | -60.8 | 13.1 | 11838 | 16853 | 12946 | True | | 165 | Gaines | -82.6 | -63.4 | 19.2 | 3856 | 6416 | 4786 | True | | 027 | Bell | -16.2 | 5.1 | 21.4 | 86547 | 130557 | 110495 | False | | 435 | Sutton | -67.1 | -47.6 | 19.5 | 1105 | 1400 | 1092 | True | | 405 | San Augustine | -56.3 | -40.2 | 16.0 | 2762 | 3747 | 3077 | True | | 269 | King | -91.1 | -84.5 | 6.6 | 91 | 135 | 116 | True | | 463 | Uvalde | -33.4 | -2.4 | 31.0 | 7530 | 9769 | 8348 | True | | 493 | Wilson | -53.7 | -35.6 | 18.2 | 19410 | 27270 | 21988 | False | | 413 | Schleicher | -64.4 | -44.9 | 19.5 | 967 | 1108 | 915 | True | | 437 | Swisher | -63.4 | -44.5 | 18.9 | 1542 | 2265 | 1714 | True | | 345 | Motley | -88.8 | -80.6 | 8.1 | 474 | 650 | 516 | True | | 305 | Lynn | -70.3 | -55.7 | 14.6 | 1301 | 2567 | 2122 | True | | 327 | Menard | -66.5 | -49.9 | 16.6 | 768 | 1039 | 784 | True | | 353 | Nolan | -59.2 | -39.5 | 19.8 | 3601 | 5114 | 3716 | True | | 431 | Sterling | -85.9 | -67.9 | 17.9 | 414 | 629 | 449 | True | | 169 | Garza | -72.6 | -52.0 | 20.7 | 1123 | 1599 | 1255 | True | | 059 | Callahan | -77.6 | -64.3 | 13.3 | 5170 | 6985 | 5382 | True | | 433 | Stonewall | -69.0 | -61.2 | 7.8 | 533 | 716 | 510 | True | | 159 | Franklin | -68.9 | -55.1 | 13.8 | 3783 | 5310 | 4240 | True | | 467 | Van Zandt | -74.8 | -60.9 | 13.9 | 20202 | 27935 | 22153 | True | | 231 | Hunt | -55.5 | -33.9 | 21.6 | 31439 | 46703 | 37502 | False | | 313 | Madison | -64.4 | -47.3 | 17.0 | 3888 | 5489 | 4288 | True | | 221 | Hood | -66.0 | -52.4 | 13.6 | 27530 | 36538 | 30225 | False | | 319 | Mason | -65.0 | -52.2 | 12.8 | 2000 | 2526 | 2158 | True | | 183 | Gregg | -42.3 | -20.1 | 22.1 | 31495 | 46699 | 38041 | True | | 211 | Hemphill | -75.8 | -56.2 | 19.6 | 1317 | 1612 | 1244 | True | | 069 | Castro | -58.2 | -40.2 | 18.0 | 1373 | 2021 | 1542 | True | | 461 | Upton | -77.0 | -54.4 | 22.6 | 986 | 1303 | 859 | True | | 247 | Jim Hogg | 8.3 | 50.4 | 42.1 | 1578 | 1585 | 1351 | True | | 285 | Lavaca | -76.1 | -65.6 | 10.5 | 8132 | 10486 | 8583 | True | | 329 | Midland | -60.5 | -37.5 | 23.1 | 37623 | 58800 | 44039 | True | | 267 | Kimble | -77.6 | -63.3 | 14.4 | 1857 | 2402 | 1971 | True | | 065 | Carson | -81.2 | -67.0 | 14.2 | 2230 | 3172 | 2379 | False | | 363 | Palo Pinto | -67.1 | -48.4 | 18.7 | 9525 | 13333 | 10377 | True | | 279 | Lamb | -64.3 | -44.7 | 19.6 | 2815 | 4151 | 3279 | True | | 133 | Eastland | -77.5 | -63.4 | 14.1 | 5913 | 8363 | 6320 | True | | 265 | Kerr | -54.3 | -37.3 | 17.1 | 21737 | 28156 | 23426 | True | | 303 | Lubbock | -39.5 | -16.5 | 23.0 | 80419 | 124972 | 104328 | False | | 143 | Erath | -68.0 | -45.9 | 22.1 | 12351 | 18350 | 14107 | True | | 459 | Upshur | -71.0 | -56.0 | 15.0 | 13969 | 19882 | 15492 | True | | 031 | Blanco | -52.5 | -41.7 | 10.9 | 6966 | 8518 | 7557 | True | | 003 | Andrews | -72.6 | -43.6 | 29.0 | 3604 | 6059 | 4145 | True | | 243 | Jeff Davis | -21.3 | -4.8 | 16.5 | 938 | 1169 | 1011 | True | | 275 | Knox | -68.5 | -49.9 | 18.6 | 947 | 1376 | 1007 | True | | 299 | Llano | -60.9 | -49.8 | 11.0 | 11081 | 13622 | 11665 | True | | 483 | Wheeler | -84.7 | -72.4 | 12.3 | 1598 | 2272 | 1690 | True | | 107 | Crosby | -51.3 | -27.6 | 23.7 | 1193 | 1880 | 1490 | True | | 311 | McMullen | -84.4 | -72.2 | 12.2 | 357 | 487 | 371 | True | | 393 | Roberts | -92.5 | -84.8 | 7.7 | 437 | 570 | 453 | True | | 263 | Kent | -76.4 | -63.3 | 13.1 | 331 | 445 | 368 | True | | 091 | Comal | -45.5 | -29.2 | 16.3 | 77429 | 103465 | 89097 | True | | 505 | Zapata | -22.4 | 40.7 | 63.2 | 3681 | 4871 | 3253 | False | | 007 | Aransas | -55.7 | -42.6 | 13.1 | 9650 | 13028 | 10596 | True | | 361 | Orange | -66.7 | -49.9 | 16.8 | 23853 | 36328 | 26299 | True | | 495 | Winkler | -70.5 | -39.2 | 31.3 | 1193 | 1932 | 1339 | True | | 253 | Jones | -73.2 | -56.0 | 17.1 | 4872 | 6946 | 5224 | True | | 421 | Sherman | -88.2 | -62.5 | 25.7 | 634 | 872 | 704 | True | | 071 | Chambers | -65.6 | -45.9 | 19.7 | 16227 | 24971 | 19453 | True | | 199 | Hardin | -75.8 | -61.5 | 14.3 | 19055 | 28157 | 20922 | True | | 217 | Hill | -64.4 | -46.2 | 18.2 | 11460 | 16703 | 13142 | True | | 491 | Williamson | -2.4 | 20.3 | 22.8 | 224104 | 308163 | 278482 | False | | 271 | Kinney | -50.5 | -28.7 | 21.8 | 1044 | 1419 | 1229 | True | | 057 | Calhoun | -52.2 | -31.8 | 20.4 | 5441 | 7832 | 6319 | True | | 139 | Ellis | -31.1 | -4.4 | 26.6 | 69977 | 99485 | 88524 | True | | 077 | Clay | -79.6 | -67.9 | 11.7 | 4347 | 5906 | 4633 | True | | 257 | Kaufman | -27.9 | 1.3 | 29.1 | 44092 | 69366 | 62251 | False | | 155 | Foard | -65.3 | -53.1 | 12.2 | 499 | 545 | 407 | True | | 085 | Collin | -11.1 | 12.1 | 23.2 | 359066 | 515167 | 457413 | True | | 093 | Comanche | -74.0 | -57.8 | 16.2 | 4721 | 6544 | 5146 | True | | 095 | Concho | -73.9 | -58.0 | 15.9 | 890 | 1198 | 993 | True | | 103 | Crane | -72.7 | -40.3 | 32.4 | 1050 | 1387 | 1009 | True | | 241 | Jasper | -66.6 | -51.5 | 15.1 | 11016 | 15839 | 11981 | True | | 177 | Gonzales | -54.8 | -31.0 | 23.8 | 5500 | 7755 | 6689 | True | | 245 | Jefferson | -8.9 | 13.2 | 22.1 | 58560 | 86272 | 72750 | True | | 127 | Dimmit | 3.3 | 39.1 | 35.9 | 2632 | 3427 | 2688 | True | | 037 | Bowie | -48.7 | -32.1 | 16.6 | 25563 | 36629 | 27696 | False | | 043 | Brewster | -12.6 | 11.3 | 23.9 | 3549 | 4576 | 3808 | True | | 111 | Dallam | -78.3 | -50.0 | 28.3 | 938 | 1447 | 1021 | True | | 067 | Cass | -65.7 | -55.6 | 10.1 | 9781 | 14140 | 10836 | True | | 149 | Fayette | -61.4 | -45.1 | 16.3 | 10354 | 13327 | 11183 | True | | 053 | Burnet | -55.7 | -38.9 | 16.8 | 21306 | 28147 | 24246 | True | | 391 | Refugio | -39.6 | -24.5 | 15.0 | 2238 | 3072 | 2404 | True | | 357 | Ochiltree | -81.6 | -53.6 | 28.0 | 1971 | 3008 | 2328 | True | | 321 | Matagorda | -50.5 | -29.4 | 21.2 | 9362 | 13308 | 10928 | True | | 447 | Throckmorton | -83.3 | -69.9 | 13.4 | 643 | 900 | 618 | True | | 001 | Anderson | -61.8 | -45.5 | 16.3 | 14023 | 19353 | 15257 | True | | 055 | Caldwell | -14.4 | 15.7 | 30.1 | 11501 | 15686 | 14781 | False | | 325 | Medina | -42.7 | -21.8 | 20.9 | 17620 | 24598 | 21237 | False | | 173 | Glasscock | -88.2 | -78.8 | 9.4 | 534 | 663 | 557 | True | | 261 | Kenedy | -46.8 | -11.9 | 34.9 | 140 | 158 | 159 | True | | 499 | Wood | -69.7 | -59.0 | 10.7 | 18146 | 24381 | 19754 | False | | 291 | Liberty | -61.6 | -28.1 | 33.5 | 19642 | 31316 | 25449 | True | | 453 | Travis | 39.3 | 58.5 | 19.2 | 446108 | 580285 | 548521 | True | | 339 | Montgomery | -45.5 | -22.2 | 23.2 | 214347 | 307134 | 258438 | False | | 227 | Howard | -62.8 | -40.3 | 22.5 | 6089 | 9640 | 7052 | True | | 021 | Bastrop | -18.4 | 10.9 | 29.3 | 29209 | 39788 | 36976 | True | | 455 | Trinity | -67.0 | -53.1 | 13.9 | 5179 | 7374 | 5874 | True | | 309 | McLennan | -30.9 | -8.5 | 22.4 | 70224 | 99490 | 83056 | True | | 307 | McCulloch | -73.4 | -61.2 | 12.2 | 2453 | 3513 | 2664 | True | | 039 | Brazoria | -19.7 | 5.4 | 25.1 | 109107 | 161950 | 141824 | True | | 017 | Bailey | -61.1 | -34.7 | 26.4 | 1186 | 1740 | 1416 | True | | 225 | Houston | -55.4 | -45.7 | 9.6 | 7078 | 9362 | 7447 | True | | 411 | San Saba | -79.0 | -64.3 | 14.7 | 2090 | 2703 | 2186 | True | | 377 | Presidio | 30.2 | 54.8 | 24.6 | 1758 | 1994 | 1878 | False | | 347 | Nacogdoches | -38.8 | -13.2 | 25.6 | 17590 | 25470 | 21488 | True | | 477 | Washington | -54.7 | -41.4 | 13.3 | 14202 | 18208 | 15480 | True | | 097 | Cooke | -66.9 | -49.3 | 17.6 | 15396 | 20432 | 17142 | True | | 487 | Wilbarger | -60.6 | -44.4 | 16.2 | 3026 | 4463 | 3385 | True | | 289 | Leon | -76.7 | -64.7 | 12.0 | 6808 | 9060 | 7051 | False | | 255 | Karnes | -58.1 | -38.1 | 20.0 | 3658 | 5075 | 4029 | True | | 381 | Randall | -60.4 | -41.1 | 19.3 | 45967 | 66854 | 53195 | True | | 123 | DeWitt | -67.0 | -54.0 | 13.0 | 5555 | 7824 | 6246 | True | | 475 | Ward | -66.1 | -42.1 | 24.0 | 2279 | 3764 | 2554 | True | | 485 | Wichita | -44.0 | -24.2 | 19.8 | 30130 | 44497 | 34327 | True | | 489 | Willacy | -3.3 | 35.0 | 38.3 | 3676 | 5563 | 4645 | True | | 419 | Shelby | -64.6 | -47.4 | 17.1 | 6671 | 9948 | 7489 | True | | 259 | Kendall | -55.7 | -43.2 | 12.5 | 23064 | 29295 | 26064 | True | | 343 | Morris | -51.2 | -37.5 | 13.7 | 3854 | 5433 | 4202 | True | | 223 | Hopkins | -64.6 | -45.5 | 19.1 | 12070 | 16773 | 13282 | True | | 397 | Rockwall | -40.9 | -22.5 | 18.4 | 43314 | 62251 | 53505 | True | | 229 | Hudspeth | -46.6 | -15.0 | 31.6 | 809 | 1038 | 801 | True | | 423 | Smith | -45.1 | -24.7 | 20.4 | 74603 | 103815 | 89060 | True | | 215 | Hidalgo | -2.9 | 46.5 | 49.3 | 138582 | 217194 | 202520 | False | | 041 | Brazos | -24.9 | 6.0 | 30.8 | 56723 | 91847 | 79867 | True | | 051 | Burleson | -62.8 | -48.2 | 14.6 | 6820 | 9365 | 7799 | True | | 119 | Delta | -69.7 | -55.2 | 14.5 | 1987 | 2658 | 2001 | True | | 105 | Crockett | -53.9 | -29.3 | 24.7 | 1214 | 1417 | 988 | True | | 287 | Lee | -60.4 | -42.5 | 18.0 | 6197 | 8413 | 6921 | True | | 395 | Robertson | -52.1 | -32.5 | 19.6 | 6007 | 8154 | 6973 | True | | 333 | Mills | -76.9 | -65.5 | 11.4 | 2058 | 2741 | 2128 | True | | 301 | Loving | -78.4 | -61.2 | 17.2 | 79 | 97 | 67 | True | | 403 | Sabine | -78.5 | -69.2 | 9.3 | 4088 | 5581 | 4262 | True | | 015 | Austin | -62.7 | -46.1 | 16.6 | 11465 | 15379 | 12819 | True | | 383 | Reagan | -69.4 | -38.4 | 31.1 | 653 | 949 | 701 | True | | 389 | Reeves | -36.9 | 7.7 | 44.6 | 2123 | 3439 | 3099 | True | | 439 | Tarrant | -5.1 | 19.2 | 24.4 | 566851 | 822680 | 728259 | False | | 209 | Hays | 5.6 | 32.1 | 26.4 | 91423 | 125688 | 119693 | False | | 409 | San Patricio | -36.4 | -12.7 | 23.7 | 17188 | 25572 | 20107 | True | | 359 | Oldham | -84.3 | -71.4 | 12.9 | 723 | 974 | 744 | True | | 371 | Pecos | -44.8 | -9.1 | 35.7 | 3504 | 4233 | 3339 | True | | 385 | Real | -66.9 | -56.5 | 10.4 | 1475 | 1958 | 1505 | True | | 113 | Dallas | 22.2 | 45.6 | 23.3 | 590309 | 848948 | 783308 | False | | 355 | Nueces | -11.5 | 11.2 | 22.7 | 84986 | 121614 | 99851 | False | | 387 | Red River | -61.7 | -48.3 | 13.5 | 4114 | 5796 | 4250 | True | | 083 | Coleman | -79.0 | -69.1 | 9.9 | 3126 | 4155 | 3232 | True | | 401 | Rusk | -59.4 | -40.3 | 19.1 | 15101 | 21702 | 17346 | True | | 443 | Terrell | -55.1 | -38.9 | 16.1 | 377 | 405 | 339 | True | | 457 | Tyler | -73.5 | -61.9 | 11.6 | 7057 | 9577 | 7210 | True | | 469 | Victoria | -42.6 | -23.1 | 19.5 | 24096 | 35239 | 28167 | True | | 479 | Webb | -2.2 | 47.3 | 49.5 | 43579 | 65845 | 58349 | False | | 481 | Wharton | -51.8 | -34.7 | 17.1 | 11759 | 16452 | 12587 | True | | 273 | Kleberg | -12.7 | 14.9 | 27.7 | 7138 | 10010 | 8159 | True | | 201 | Harris | 5.5 | 33.0 | 27.4 | 1055924 | 1556310 | 1382875 | False | | 197 | Hardeman | -72.7 | -58.3 | 14.4 | 1002 | 1405 | 974 | True | | 351 | Newton | -66.6 | -54.8 | 11.8 | 4190 | 5749 | 4270 | True | | 349 | Navarro | -51.8 | -29.1 | 22.7 | 13905 | 19829 | 16100 | True | | 337 | Montague | -77.7 | -66.7 | 11.0 | 7797 | 11097 | 8637 | True | | 163 | Frio | -24.6 | 11.3 | 35.9 | 3661 | 4933 | 3798 | True | | 203 | Harrison | -50.6 | -34.7 | 15.9 | 20354 | 30226 | 24043 | True | | 277 | Lamar | -61.1 | -45.6 | 15.4 | 14811 | 21236 | 16419 | True | | 153 | Floyd | -65.0 | -41.0 | 24.0 | 1360 | 2089 | 1628 | True | | 427 | Starr | -16.0 | 55.8 | 71.8 | 12190 | 16419 | 13082 | True | | 429 | Stephens | -79.3 | -63.9 | 15.5 | 2607 | 3761 | 2784 | True | | 369 | Parmer | -70.1 | -45.4 | 24.7 | 1620 | 2504 | 1975 | True | | 315 | Marion | -52.5 | -41.4 | 11.1 | 3266 | 4714 | 3826 | True | | 465 | Val Verde | -26.6 | 12.2 | 38.8 | 9033 | 14578 | 11641 | False | | 141 | El Paso | 15.1 | 47.9 | 32.8 | 160996 | 251371 | 218490 | False | | 081 | Coke | -79.6 | -67.2 | 12.4 | 1336 | 1814 | 1354 | True | | 061 | Cameron | -5.8 | 38.5 | 44.3 | 74879 | 116122 | 102017 | True | | 473 | Waller | -25.0 | -1.8 | 23.2 | 17337 | 27545 | 23751 | True | | 025 | Bee | -39.9 | -13.6 | 26.2 | 6126 | 8789 | 7153 | True | | 449 | Titus | -54.7 | -24.8 | 29.9 | 7026 | 10208 | 8735 | True | | 063 | Camp | -53.6 | -34.5 | 19.2 | 3830 | 5242 | 4278 | True | | 185 | Grimes | -60.3 | -43.8 | 16.4 | 10105 | 14043 | 11718 | False | | 415 | Scurry | -73.6 | -58.4 | 15.2 | 3824 | 5720 | 4168 | True | | 249 | Jim Wells | -15.5 | 15.4 | 30.9 | 9368 | 13268 | 10664 | True | | 135 | Ector | -52.9 | -18.9 | 34.0 | 23653 | 42615 | 29474 | True | | 379 | Rains | -72.9 | -61.6 | 11.4 | 4982 | 6554 | 5080 | True | | 367 | Parker | -66.4 | -50.9 | 15.5 | 65424 | 90802 | 76140 | True | | 503 | Young | -76.3 | -59.9 | 16.4 | 5228 | 8309 | 6560 | True | | 373 | Polk | -58.9 | -45.9 | 13.0 | 17247 | 24285 | 17493 | True | | 005 | Angelina | -52.0 | -30.4 | 21.6 | 23461 | 34419 | 27286 | True | | 297 | Live Oak | -69.6 | -57.4 | 12.2 | 3765 | 5092 | 3855 | False | | 115 | Dawson | -61.0 | -44.6 | 16.4 | 2283 | 3511 | 2572 | True | | 207 | Haskell | -71.5 | -58.2 | 13.2 | 1589 | 2246 | 1623 | True | | 445 | Terry | -65.2 | -43.3 | 21.8 | 2370 | 3419 | 2616 | True | | 009 | Archer | -79.3 | -69.2 | 10.2 | 3747 | 5132 | 3996 | True | | 213 | Henderson | -63.5 | -46.1 | 17.4 | 27697 | 38528 | 31073 | True | | 035 | Bosque | -67.3 | -52.5 | 14.8 | 7336 | 9571 | 7720 | True | | 205 | Hartley | -83.3 | -68.2 | 15.2 | 1468 | 2016 | 1530 | True | | 087 | Collingsworth | -77.5 | -66.6 | 10.9 | 859 | 1201 | 950 | False | | 425 | Somervell | -70.8 | -57.4 | 13.4 | 4037 | 5285 | 4302 | True | | 089 | Colorado | -57.2 | -43.3 | 13.9 | 7497 | 9994 | 8353 | False | | 161 | Freestone | -66.3 | -50.6 | 15.8 | 6377 | 9045 | 7307 | True | | 033 | Borden | -91.5 | -83.3 | 8.1 | 297 | 387 | 306 | True | | 109 | Culberson | -16.9 | 22.1 | 39.0 | 727 | 781 | 867 | True | | 167 | Galveston | -27.4 | -5.9 | 21.5 | 109765 | 158933 | 134555 | True | | 281 | Lampasas | -59.6 | -43.8 | 15.7 | 8263 | 11296 | 9161 | True | | 137 | Edwards | -73.2 | -56.0 | 17.2 | 763 | 1005 | 805 | False | | 187 | Guadalupe | -29.5 | -5.8 | 23.7 | 56521 | 85097 | 70924 | False | | 073 | Cherokee | -62.7 | -43.8 | 18.9 | 14394 | 20502 | 16601 | True | | 147 | Fannin | -67.4 | -51.7 | 15.7 | 11523 | 16385 | 12976 | False | | 157 | Fort Bend | 1.6 | 28.6 | 27.0 | 246597 | 362259 | 331775 | False | | 331 | Milam | -57.3 | -40.0 | 17.3 | 8190 | 11093 | 8608 | True | | 029 | Bexar | 9.7 | 35.5 | 25.7 | 522884 | 757547 | 658445 | False | | 251 | Johnson | -51.4 | -27.2 | 24.3 | 57467 | 80691 | 69924 | False | | 121 | Denton | -13.2 | 8.4 | 21.6 | 312488 | 448729 | 395959 | True | | 019 | Bandera | -61.9 | -51.5 | 10.4 | 10469 | 13592 | 10234 | True | | 323 | Maverick | -18.5 | 41.1 | 59.6 | 9714 | 15743 | 12551 | False | | 239 | Jackson | -70.8 | -54.3 | 16.5 | 4049 | 6329 | 4996 | True | | 181 | Grayson | -54.3 | -37.4 | 16.8 | 46096 | 65888 | 53782 | True | ### Data: county_shapes Projected county outlines used to draw the map (us-atlas, from US Census boundaries). Source: us-atlas counties-10m. Full data in the JSON file: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/data.json (dataset "county_shapes"). Receipts (content hashes of the source files): sha256:b1d9ed90534f141a --- ## License and credit Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well. Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/data.json --- title: "Who Won the Convention" url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/ publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic) published: 2026-11-05 updated: 2026-11-06 license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) credit: "Source: politic.design" data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/data.json pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/who-won-the-convention.pdf --- Story 5 of 5 · Turnout · 3D · Midterms 2026 # Who Won the Convention About six points of the Democrats' margin came from who showed up. The rest came from voters who changed sides or were voting for the first time. By the politic.design data desk · 5 Nov 2026, updated 6 Nov 2026 · Preliminary counts Turnout was 48.8% of eligible voters, short only of 2018 in more than a century. Maine (65.8%), Minnesota and Michigan led; West Virginia (33.3%) trailed. The exit poll asked people how they voted in 2024. Among this year's voters, Harris voters outnumbered Trump voters 49 to 44, even though Trump won the 2024 popular vote. That gap is the turnout story. We split the margin in two. With the 2024 mix of Harris and Trump voters and this year's loyalty rates, Democrats would have won by about 6. With the actual 2026 mix they won by about 12 in this sample. So roughly six points came from turnout, and the rest from switchers (7% of Trump voters backed a Democrat) and from 2024 non-voters, who broke 70–25. Then the money. A record $11.2bn in ads, with Republicans spending $410m more, and Texas's Senate race the most expensive non-presidential contest on record at over $560m. The spending didn't fill the stands for the side that spent more. **Data:** NBC News/SSRS exit poll (2024 recalled vote × 2026 House vote); turnout from Al Jazeera's tally of state data; AdImpact spending. **Key finding:** "Among 2026 voters, Harris voters outnumbered Trump voters by five points; that turnout gap was worth about six points of margin." ### Who won the convention **In short:** Every voter in one hall, 990 seats, so each seat is about one in a thousand voters. Sections are how people voted in 2024; seat and flag colour is how they voted this week. Cards pop up from random seats to say who sits there. "Only switchers" lights the people who changed sides or were new. Drag to turn it. drag to rotate Recalled 2024 vote in exit polls usually leans towards the winner, so the turnout split is an estimate to check against voter-file data (Catalist, L2) when it arrives in early 2027. Rows don't reach 100% because about 1% of voters gave no 2024 answer. ## The data behind this page ### Data: hall Every 2026 voter in a 990-seat hall (about one seat per thousand voters), by 2024 vote and 2026 House vote. Source: NBC News/SSRS exit poll, 2026 House vote by 2024 presidential vote. | vote_2024 | dem_2026_seats | rep_2026_seats | other_2026_seats | |---|---|---|---| | Voted Harris in 2024 | 475 | 10 | 5 | | Voted Trump in 2024 | 31 | 400 | 9 | | Didn’t vote in 2024 | 28 | 10 | 2 | | Voted for someone else | 11 | 6 | 3 | ### Data: fact_cards The facts shown on cards in the hall, from across politic.design. Source: As cited on each story. | category | fact | dem_pct | rep_pct | |---|---|---|---| | Exit poll | Said tariffs hurt the economy (66% of voters) | 81 | 18 | | Exit poll | Called the Iran strikes the wrong decision (63%) | 83 | 15 | | Exit poll | Family finances worse than two years ago (44%) | 75 | 23 | | Exit poll | Top issue: the state of democracy (33%) | 79 | 20 | | Exit poll | Top issue: immigration (14%) | 10 | 89 | | Exit poll | Top issue: the economy (39%) | 52 | 46 | | The kerb | Men, 47% of voters, from R+16 in 2024 to | 50 | 48 | | The kerb | Voters 65 and over, the closest age group | 50 | 50 | | New voters | Sat out 2024, voted this time | 70 | 25 | | New voters | First-time midterm voters (9%) | 65 | 33 | | Crossovers | of Trump 2024 voters backed a Democrat for the House. | | | | Turnout | Harris voters outnumbered Trump voters in this electorate: about 6 points of margin. | | | | Weight transfer | Under-30s, up from D+8. They moved the national balance 3.6 points. | | | | Weight transfer | of the swing came from white voters, 73% of the electorate. | | | | The bill | net votes the state of democracy cost Republicans. | | | | The bill | net votes immigration won back for Republicans. | | | | Blue wave | Republican seats Trump won by under 10 points flipped. | | | | Blue wave | flips beyond Trump+15 came in redrawn North Carolina and Texas. | | | | Borderlands | Starr County, Texas, swung from Trump +16 to Talarico +56. | | | | Borderlands | Texas counties moved toward Democrats. | | | | Coverage | articles on the cost of living in 90 days, the most-covered issue. | | | | Coverage | of US news mentioned democracy, the top issue for a third of voters. | | | | Brand Truth | They swung most, but moved fewer votes than white voters. | | | | Brand Truth | Yahoo News, checked against the projected D+12 to D+14. | | | | The Senate | votes for James Talarico in Texas, the most ever for a Texas Democrat. | | | | Turnout | of eligible voters cast a ballot, second only to 2018 in a century. | | | | Money | in political ads, a record. Republicans spent $410m more. | | | --- ## License and credit Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well. Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/data.json --- title: "The midterms as a brand" url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/brand-truth/ publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic) published: 2026-11-05 updated: 2026-11-06 license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) credit: "Source: politic.design" data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/brand-truth/data.json pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/brand-truth/brand-truth.pdf --- Brand Truth · run by Brantopic · Midterms 2026 # The midterms as a brand Brantopic's Truth module checks what a brand's story says against the evidence. Here the "brand" is the 2026 midterm itself. Its messages are what the press said it meant; the evidence is the data behind this page. **In short:** We took twelve things outlets reported about the election, paraphrased and linked, and asked Brantopic to match each one against the fifteen facts behind our charts. A claim stands only if a fact supports it with confidence above 0.6. What survives is the election's truth. ## The data behind this page ### Data: claims Twelve media claims about the midterms, each checked against the fact base. Source: Brantopic claims.match: TF-IDF candidate facts, model verdict (supports / contradicts / unrelated) with confidence. | source | url | claim | verdict | confidence | fact | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | NPR | https://www.npr.org/2026/11/04/nx-s1-6022216/midterms-democrats-trump-republicans-analysis | Latino voters swung back to Democrats after moving toward Trump in 2024, driven by frustration over inflation. | supports | 0.8 | Exit poll: Latino voters backed Democrats 64-34 for the House in 2026; in 2024 they were about D+11, a 29-point shift toward Democrats. | | CBS News | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-exit-polls-2026-midterms-democrats/ | The midterm was a referendum on President Trump, with most voters saying his tariffs hurt the economy. | supports | 0.8 | Exit poll: 66% said tariffs hurt the national economy and voted 81-18 Democratic; 44% said family finances were worse than two years ago and voted 75-23 Democratic. | | Yahoo News | https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/article/democrats-2026-midterm-rout-was-big--really-big-here-are-the-numbers-that-prove-it-225923613.html | Democrats won the House popular vote by the widest midterm margin since 1974. | supports | 0.95 | The projected 2026 House popular-vote margin is D+12 to D+14; the last midterm won by that much was 1974. | | AP Voter Poll (PBS) | https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-voter-poll-how-key-demographic-groups-voted-in-the-2026-midterms | Democrats' gains were not a ringing endorsement of the Democratic Party. | supports | 0.85 | Only about half of voters viewed the Democratic Party favourably; one exit poll put Democrats at 47% favourable and Republicans at 41%. | | AP Voter Poll (US News) | https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2026-11-04/democrats-won-back-support-from-five-key-groups-that-shifted-toward-trump-in-2024-the-ap-voter-poll | Young voters led the shift toward Democrats in the 2026 midterms. | contradicts | 0.8 | Voters aged 18-29 shifted 33 points toward Democrats (D+8 to D+41) but were 11% of the electorate, moving the national margin about 3.6 points; white voters (73% of voters) moved it about 8.8 points. | | Al Jazeera | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/5/visualising-how-the-us-midterms-turned-the-map-blue | Turnout was the second highest for a midterm in more than a century. | supports | 0.97 | Turnout was 48.8% of eligible voters, the second highest for a midterm in more than a century after 2018. | | CNN | https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/05/politics/democrats-house-majority-historic-midterms | Democrats are on track for their largest House majority since 2008. | supports | 0.9 | Democrats are projected to win 256 to 260 House seats; their 2008 total was 257 seats. | | CBS News | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-exit-polls-2026-midterms-democrats/ | Women's support for Democrats was similar to 2018, while men split their votes. | supports | 0.9 | Women voted 59-40 Democratic in 2026, the same as in the 2018 midterm exit poll; men voted 50-48 Democratic, up from about R+16 in 2024. | | Texas Tribune | https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/04/texas-border-counties-voter-turnout/ | Texas border counties swung from Trump to Democrats. | supports | 0.8 | In Texas all 254 counties swung toward Democrats between the 2024 presidential and 2026 Senate votes; the four Rio Grande Valley counties went from R+4 to D+44. | | Daily Wire, citing CNN's data chief (pre-election) | https://www.dailywire.com/news/cnn-data-chief-shatters-blue-wave-hype-democrats-2026-lead-less-than-half-of-past-midterms | Talk of a blue wave was hype: Democrats' lead was less than half of past midterm waves. | contradicts | 0.85 | The projected 2026 House popular-vote margin is D+12 to D+14; the last midterm won by that much was 1974. | | ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll (pre-election) | https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/gop-stays-competitive-midterms-despite-trumps-negative-ratings-130460299 | Republicans stayed competitive in the midterms despite Trump's negative ratings. | supports | 0.6 | AdImpact: Republicans spent about $5.18bn on political ads in the 2025-26 cycle and Democrats about $4.77bn. | | AdImpact via Fox5 Vegas | https://www.fox5vegas.com/2026/10/29/2026-midterms-set-new-record-political-ad-spending | Republicans held the advantage in political advertising spending this cycle. | supports | 0.95 | AdImpact: Republicans spent about $5.18bn on political ads in the 2025-26 cycle and Democrats about $4.77bn. | ### Data: facts The fact base the claims were checked against. Source: As cited per fact. Full data in the JSON file: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/brand-truth/data.json (dataset "facts"). Receipts (content hashes of the source files): sha256:bd3cdff894e03fd8 --- ## License and credit Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well. Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/brand-truth/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/brand-truth/data.json --- title: "Many Streams, One Chamber" url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/representation/ publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic) published: 2026-11-05 updated: 2026-11-06 license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) credit: "Source: politic.design" data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/representation/data.json pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/representation/representation.pdf --- Feature · Who won · Midterms 2026 # Many Streams, One Chamber Who the 2026 winners are: 13 of 67 Senate and governor winners have a documented heritage other than white, and 22 are women. Each stream below is one winner, as wide as the votes they won. By the politic.design data desk · 6 Nov 2026 · Preliminary counts ### Many streams into two chambers **In short:** Each line is one winner of a 2026 Senate or governor race. It starts at their documented heritage on the left and flows into the office they won. Thicker lines won more votes; gold lines are women, blue lines are men. Hover a line for the name, votes and margin. Hover or tap a stream, a heritage group or an office. WomenMenline width = votes won Heritage is shown only where the person self-identifies or a reliable source reports it; everyone else is under "Not documented". We never infer heritage from a name or a photo. Margins and votes from Wikipedia's race pages and network tallies as of 6 Nov 2026; preliminary. Records reported this week - Women won 7 U.S. Senate races in 2026 (3D, 4R); at least 23 women (16D, 7R) will serve in the 120th Congress Senate, down from the record 27 in 2026. 2 Senate races uncalled. [source](https://cawp.rutgers.edu/blog/results-women-congressional-and-statewide-executive-candidates-election-2026) - Women won 133 U.S. House races (114D, 19R); at least 136 women will serve in the House in 2027 (31.3%), a new record (previous 127, set 2024). 16 House races uncalled at time of update. [source](https://cawp.rutgers.edu/blog/results-women-congressional-and-statewide-executive-candidates-election-2026) - At least 159 women will serve in the 120th Congress, a new record (previous 152, set 2024). [source](https://cawp.rutgers.edu/blog/results-women-congressional-and-statewide-executive-candidates-election-2026) - Women won 15 governorships in 2026 (12D, 3R); at least 17 women governors (14D, 3R) will serve in 2027 (34%), a new record overall and for Democratic women. Alaska and Kansas governor races uncalled. [source](https://cawp.rutgers.edu/blog/results-women-congressional-and-statewide-executive-candidates-election-2026) - A record three Black women will serve concurrently in the U.S. Senate (Alsobrooks, Blunt Rochester, Stratton); Peggy Flanagan is the first Native American woman senator. [source](https://cawp.rutgers.edu/blog/results-women-congressional-and-statewide-executive-candidates-election-2026) - Latinas and Black women set congressional records; Native American, Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian women matched the House record (CAWP gives no overall counts). [source](https://cawp.rutgers.edu/blog/results-women-congressional-and-statewide-executive-candidates-election-2026) - New Mexico became the first state to elect an all-women-of-color gubernatorial ticket. [source](https://cawp.rutgers.edu/blog/results-women-congressional-and-statewide-executive-candidates-election-2026) - Senate: Democrats won 20 of 35 contested seats including 7 Republican-held seats; Republicans held 13; Alaska and Mississippi undecided as of Nov 6, 2026 1 PM EST. Democratic caucus projected at 54-56 seats. [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections) Every winner, with the source for their heritage | Winner | Office | Party | Heritage (as reported) | Gender | Votes | Margin | Source | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Tommy Tuberville | Governor, Alabama | Republican | not documented | male | 872,806 | 4.2 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_Tuberville) | | Katie Hobbs | Governor, Arizona | Democratic | not documented | female | 1,246,992 | 12.8 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Hobbs) | | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | Governor, Arkansas | Republican | not documented | female | 477,138 | 15.3 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Huckabee_Sanders) | | Xavier Becerra | Governor, California | Democratic | Latino / Hispanic | male | 5,737,929 | 29.6 | [source](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-11-03/xavier-becerra-makes-history-as-californias-first-elected-latino-governor) | | Phil Weiser | Governor, Colorado | Democratic | not documented | male | 1,434,982 | 26.5 | [source](https://www.coloradopolitics.com/hot-sheet/holocaust-survivor-estare-weiser-featured-in-ad-for-her-son-phil-weisers-attorney-general-campaign/article_2f52ff72-e9d9-52ff-b44d-8c941f609fed.html) | | Ned Lamont | Governor, Connecticut | Democratic | not documented | male | 766,265 | 18.8 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ned_Lamont) | | Byron Donalds | Governor, Florida | Republican | Black / African American, Jamaican and Panamanian heritage | male | 4,132,363 | 1.3 | [source](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/byron-donalds-florida-governor-win-gop-first-black-leader-jolly-rcna603345) | | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Governor, Georgia | Democratic | Black / African American | female | 2,271,404 | 8.6 | [source](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/keisha-lance-bottoms-georgia-governor-win-democrats-flip-jackson-rcna603348) | | Josh Green | Governor, Hawaii | Democratic | not documented | male | 278,652 | 45.2 | [source](https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-small-island-of-judaism-in-hawaiian-politics/) | | Brad Little | Governor, Idaho | Republican | not documented | male | 407,200 | 24.8 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Little) | | JB Pritzker | Governor, Illinois | Democratic | not documented | male | 2,351,526 | 22.8 | [source](https://www.chicagojewishnews.com/2017/06/the-pritzker-family-is-one-of-the-most-prominent-in-chicagos-jewish-community-an-exclusive-interview-with-j-b-pritzker-who-wants-to-be-the-next-governor-of-illinois/) | | Rob Sand | Governor, Iowa | Democratic | not documented | male | 757,489 | 11.0 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_Sand) | | Hannah Pingree | Governor, Maine | Democratic | not documented | female | 382,760 | 17.3 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannah_Pingree) | | Wes Moore | Governor, Maryland | Democratic | Black / African American | male | 1,171,396 | 29.6 | [source](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/08/us/politics/maryland-governor-wes-moore.html) | | Maura Healey | Governor, Massachusetts | Democratic | not documented | female | 1,618,949 | 27.6 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maura_Healey) | | Jocelyn Benson | Governor, Michigan | Democratic | not documented | female | 2,600,636 | 10.7 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jocelyn_Benson) | | Amy Klobuchar | Governor, Minnesota | Democratic (DFL) | Slovene and German-Swiss descent | female | 1,569,698 | 12.9 | [source](https://web.archive.org/web/20170223044030/http://www.startribune.com/born-to-ride-jim-klobuchar-and-the-birth-of-the-minnesota-bike-tour/320920321/) | | Jim Pillen | Governor, Nebraska | Republican | not documented | male | 376,284 | 8.6 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Pillen) | | Aaron Ford | Governor, Nevada | Democratic | Black / African American | male | 532,026 | 7.1 | [source](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/midterm-election-results-2026-latest-updates/card/democrat-aaron-ford-will-be-nevada-s-first-black-governor-mbfiiweNYlwGsCdXVNlC) | | Kelly Ayotte | Governor, New Hampshire | Republican | French-Canadian descent (paternal) | female | 316,798 | 3.9 | [source](https://web.archive.org/web/20211231002459/https://theworld.org/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/120827/republican-stalwart-kelly-ayotte-speak-at-rnc-tu) | | Deb Haaland | Governor, New Mexico | Democratic | Native American - enrolled member of Laguna Pueblo | female | 415,484 | 14.6 | [source](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/03/deb-haaland-new-mexico-governor) | | Kathy Hochul | Governor, New York | Democratic | not documented | female | 3,529,746 | 19.4 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathy_Hochul) | | Amy Acton | Governor, Ohio | Democratic | not documented | female | 2,404,178 | 7.9 | [source](https://religionnews.com/2026/10/29/ohio-governor-vivek-ramaswamy-amy-acton-hindu-jewish-religion/) | | Mike Mazzei | Governor, Oklahoma | Republican | not documented | male | 581,706 | 6.0 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Mazzei) | | Tina Kotek | Governor, Oregon | Democratic | not documented | female | 843,263 | 6.6 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tina_Kotek) | | Josh Shapiro | Governor, Pennsylvania | Democratic | not documented | male | 3,002,608 | 22.1 | [source](https://www.thejc.com/news/usa/who-is-josh-shapiro-the-potential-first-jewish-vice-president-flb3uvuc) | | Helena Foulkes | Governor, Rhode Island | Democratic | not documented | female | 206,892 | 29.9 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helena_Foulkes) | | Alan Wilson | Governor, South Carolina | Republican | not documented | male | 1,050,190 | 4.5 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Wilson_(politician)) | | Larry Rhoden | Governor, South Dakota | Republican | not documented | male | 193,317 | 27.0 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Rhoden) | | Marsha Blackburn | Governor, Tennessee | Republican | not documented | female | 955,259 | 2.5 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marsha_Blackburn) | | Gina Hinojosa | Governor, Texas | Democratic | Latina / Hispanic, Mexican descent | female | 5,230,908 | 7.1 | [source](https://web.archive.org/web/20261021210549/https://www.expressnews.com/politics/article/gina-hinojosa-mom-voter-suppression-bexar-county-22485760.php) | | Phil Scott | Governor, Vermont | Republican | not documented | male | 163,151 | 7.0 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Scott) | | David Crowley | Governor, Wisconsin | Democratic | Black / African American | male | 1,438,721 | 8.2 | [source](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/david-crowley-wisconsin-governor-election-win-democrat-tom-tiffany-gop-rcna603350) | | Eric Barlow | Governor, Wyoming | Republican | not documented | male | 128,480 | 51.8 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Barlow) | | Barry Moore | Senate, Alabama | Republican | not documented | male | 917,347 | 9.4 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Moore_(American_politician)) | | Tom Cotton | Senate, Arkansas | Republican | not documented | male | 480,576 | 11.9 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Cotton) | | John Hickenlooper | Senate, Colorado | Democratic | Partial Dutch descent | male | 1,406,783 | 24.3 | [source](https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/best-of-copo-2018-hickenlooper-looks-back-ahead/article_4f7f7c9a-0ba6-11e9-bc45-77a7b0081bc5.html) | | Chris Coons | Senate, Delaware | Democratic | not documented | male | 240,347 | 27.2 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Coons) | | Ashley Moody | Senate, Florida | Republican | not documented | female | 4,208,022 | 2.9 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashley_Moody) | | Jon Ossoff | Senate, Georgia | Democratic | not documented | male | 2,466,207 | 18.0 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Ossoff) | | Jim Risch | Senate, Idaho | Republican | not documented | male | 401,731 | 23.0 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Risch) | | Juliana Stratton | Senate, Illinois | Democratic | Black / African American | female | 2,431,012 | 23.1 | [source](https://www.ebony.com/news-views/2018-midterm-election-coverage) | | Josh Turek | Senate, Iowa | Democratic | not documented | male | 686,487 | 4.1 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Turek) | | Adam Hamilton | Senate, Kansas | Democratic | not documented | male | 556,567 | 4.8 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Hamilton_(pastor)) | | Andy Barr | Senate, Kentucky | Republican | not documented | male | 784,869 | 12.1 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Barr) | | Julia Letlow | Senate, Louisiana | Republican | not documented | female | 745,963 | 1.8 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Letlow) | | Troy Jackson | Senate, Maine | Democratic | not documented | male | 368,332 | 6.9 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troy_Jackson) | | Ed Markey | Senate, Massachusetts | Democratic | not documented | male | 1,590,089 | 31.0 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Markey) | | Abdul El-Sayed | Senate, Michigan | Democratic | Egyptian American (born to Egyptian immigrant parents) | male | 2,507,286 | 7.0 | [source](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/03/abdul-el-sayed-mike-rogers-michigan-senate) | | Peggy Flanagan | Senate, Minnesota | Democratic (DFL) | Native American - Ojibwe; citizen of White Earth Nation, Irish descent | female | 1,520,869 | 10.1 | [source](https://minnesotareformer.com/2026/11/03/peggy-flanagan-wins-minnesota-us-senate-seat-in-first-for-native-american-women/) | | Kurt Alme | Senate, Montana | Republican | not documented | male | 230,117 | 11.1 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Alme) | | Pete Ricketts | Senate, Nebraska | Republican | not documented | male | 373,115 | 6.8 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Ricketts) | | Chris Pappas | Senate, New Hampshire | Democratic | not documented | male | 341,737 | 13.8 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Pappas_(American_politician)) | | Cory Booker | Senate, New Jersey | Democratic | Black / African American | male | 1,786,910 | 26.8 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cory_Booker) | | Ben Ray Luján | Senate, New Mexico | Democratic | Hispanic / Latino | male | 455,165 | 26.4 | [source](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/06/681982396/a-guide-to-whos-who-in-house-leadership-for-the-116th-congress) | | Roy Cooper | Senate, North Carolina | Democratic | not documented | male | 2,467,963 | 19.6 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Cooper) | | Sherrod Brown | Senate, Ohio | Democratic | not documented | male | 2,301,042 | 4.8 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherrod_Brown) | | Kevin Hern | Senate, Oklahoma | Republican | not documented | male | 639,510 | 18.1 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Hern) | | Jeff Merkley | Senate, Oregon | Democratic | not documented | male | 864,436 | 16.1 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Merkley) | | Jack Reed | Senate, Rhode Island | Democratic | not documented | male | 237,742 | 37.2 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Reed_(Rhode_Island_politician)) | | Annie Andrews | Senate, South Carolina | Democratic | not documented | female | 1,042,362 | 4.4 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annie_Andrews) | | Mike Rounds | Senate, South Dakota | Republican | not documented | male | 184,571 | 21.0 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Rounds) | | Bill Hagerty | Senate, Tennessee | Republican | not documented | male | 1,138,457 | 12.2 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Hagerty) | | James Talarico | Senate, Texas | Democratic | not documented | male | 5,445,121 | 12.1 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Talarico) | | Mark Warner | Senate, Virginia | Democratic | not documented | male | 2,169,243 | 22.4 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Warner) | | Shelley Moore Capito | Senate, West Virginia | Republican | not documented | female | 266,068 | 20.4 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelley_Moore_Capito) | | Harriet Hageman | Senate, Wyoming | Republican | not documented | female | 122,157 | 30.4 | [source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harriet_Hageman) | ## The data behind this page ### Data: winners Senate, governor and House winners: party, result, gender and documented heritage (never inferred). Source: Results from Wikipedia race infoboxes (snapshot 2026-11-06; Wikipedia cites AP/NYT/NBC). Margin = winner pct minus runner-up pct, in percentage points. Gender from pronouns used in each person's Wikipedia article. Heritage recorded ONLY when stated in cited article text or by a reputable outlet/CAWP; Wikipedia categories alone were NOT accepted and are mentioned only in notes. Religion recorded only where explicitly reported (minority-faith claims); Christian denominations were not systematically collected. Never inferred from names or photos. Territories/DC not included in governor list. Results are unofficial and uncertified.. | name | office | state | district | party | flip | votes | pct | margin | gender | heritage | heritage_source | status | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Barry Moore | Senate | Alabama | | Republican | False | 917347 | 54.7 | 9.4 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Moore_(American_politician) | called | | | Senate | Alaska | | | | | | | | | | uncalled as of Wikipedia snapshot 2026-11-06 | | Tom Cotton | Senate | Arkansas | | Republican | False | 480576 | 54.3 | 11.9 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Cotton | called | | John Hickenlooper | Senate | Colorado | | Democratic | False | 1406783 | 60.0 | 24.3 | male | Partial Dutch descent | https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/best-of-copo-2018-hickenlooper-looks-back-ahead/article_4f7f7c9a-0ba6-11e9-bc45-77a7b0081bc5.html | called | | Chris Coons | Senate | Delaware | | Democratic | False | 240347 | 63.6 | 27.2 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Coons | called | | Ashley Moody | Senate | Florida | | Republican | False | 4208022 | 50.9 | 2.9 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashley_Moody | called | | Jon Ossoff | Senate | Georgia | | Democratic | False | 2466207 | 59.0 | 18.0 | male | Religion: Jewish (paternal Litvak Jewish descent) | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Ossoff | called | | Jim Risch | Senate | Idaho | | Republican | False | 401731 | 56.5 | 23.0 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Risch | called | | Juliana Stratton | Senate | Illinois | | Democratic | False | 2431012 | 60.9 | 23.1 | female | Black / African American | https://www.ebony.com/news-views/2018-midterm-election-coverage | called | | Josh Turek | Senate | Iowa | | Democratic | True | 686487 | 50.5 | 4.1 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Turek | called | | Adam Hamilton | Senate | Kansas | | Democratic | True | 556567 | 50.9 | 4.8 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Hamilton_(pastor) | called | | Andy Barr | Senate | Kentucky | | Republican | False | 784869 | 55.0 | 12.1 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Barr | called | | Julia Letlow | Senate | Louisiana | | Republican | False | 745963 | 50.9 | 1.8 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Letlow | called | | Troy Jackson | Senate | Maine | | Democratic | True | 368332 | 53.4 | 6.9 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troy_Jackson | called | | Ed Markey | Senate | Massachusetts | | Democratic | False | 1590089 | 63.3 | 31.0 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Markey | called | | Abdul El-Sayed | Senate | Michigan | | Democratic | False | 2507286 | 52.5 | 7.0 | male | Egyptian American (born to Egyptian immigrant parents), Religion: Muslim | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/03/abdul-el-sayed-mike-rogers-michigan-senate | called | | Peggy Flanagan | Senate | Minnesota | | Democratic (DFL) | False | 1520869 | 53.7 | 10.1 | female | Native American - Ojibwe; citizen of White Earth Nation, Irish descent | https://minnesotareformer.com/2026/11/03/peggy-flanagan-wins-minnesota-us-senate-seat-in-first-for-native-american-women/ | called | | | Senate | Mississippi | | | | | | | | | | uncalled as of Wikipedia snapshot 2026-11-06 | | Kurt Alme | Senate | Montana | | Republican | False | 230117 | 48.6 | 11.1 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Alme | called | | Pete Ricketts | Senate | Nebraska | | Republican | False | 373115 | 50.4 | 6.8 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Ricketts | called | | Chris Pappas | Senate | New Hampshire | | Democratic | False | 341737 | 56.0 | 13.8 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Pappas_(American_politician) | called | | Cory Booker | Senate | New Jersey | | Democratic | False | 1786910 | 62.1 | 26.8 | male | Black / African American | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cory_Booker | called | | Ben Ray Luján | Senate | New Mexico | | Democratic | False | 455165 | 63.2 | 26.4 | male | Hispanic / Latino | https://www.npr.org/2019/01/06/681982396/a-guide-to-whos-who-in-house-leadership-for-the-116th-congress | called | | Roy Cooper | Senate | North Carolina | | Democratic | True | 2467963 | 58.7 | 19.6 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Cooper | called | | Sherrod Brown | Senate | Ohio | | Democratic | True | 2301042 | 50.0 | 4.8 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherrod_Brown | called | | Kevin Hern | Senate | Oklahoma | | Republican | False | 639510 | 57.3 | 18.1 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Hern | called | | Jeff Merkley | Senate | Oregon | | Democratic | False | 864436 | 56.6 | 16.1 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Merkley | called | | Jack Reed | Senate | Rhode Island | | Democratic | False | 237742 | 66.6 | 37.2 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Reed_(Rhode_Island_politician) | called | | Annie Andrews | Senate | South Carolina | | Democratic | True | 1042362 | 51.1 | 4.4 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annie_Andrews | called | | Mike Rounds | Senate | South Dakota | | Republican | False | 184571 | 60.5 | 21.0 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Rounds | called | | Bill Hagerty | Senate | Tennessee | | Republican | False | 1138457 | 55.1 | 12.2 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Hagerty | called | | James Talarico | Senate | Texas | | Democratic | True | 5445121 | 55.1 | 12.1 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Talarico | called | | Mark Warner | Senate | Virginia | | Democratic | False | 2169243 | 61.1 | 22.4 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Warner | called | | Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | West Virginia | | Republican | False | 266068 | 58.3 | 20.4 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelley_Moore_Capito | called | | Harriet Hageman | Senate | Wyoming | | Republican | False | 122157 | 65.2 | 30.4 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harriet_Hageman | called | | Tommy Tuberville | Governor | Alabama | | Republican | False | 872806 | 52.1 | 4.2 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_Tuberville | called | | | Governor | Alaska | | | | | | | | | | uncalled as of Wikipedia snapshot 2026-11-06 | | Katie Hobbs | Governor | Arizona | | Democratic | False | 1246992 | 55.5 | 12.8 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Hobbs | called | | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | Governor | Arkansas | | Republican | False | 477138 | 53.9 | 15.3 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Huckabee_Sanders | called | | Xavier Becerra | Governor | California | | Democratic | False | 5737929 | 64.8 | 29.6 | male | Latino / Hispanic | https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-11-03/xavier-becerra-makes-history-as-californias-first-elected-latino-governor | called | | Phil Weiser | Governor | Colorado | | Democratic | False | 1434982 | 60.5 | 26.5 | male | Religion/ethnicity: Ashkenazi Jewish family | https://www.coloradopolitics.com/hot-sheet/holocaust-survivor-estare-weiser-featured-in-ad-for-her-son-phil-weisers-attorney-general-campaign/article_2f52ff72-e9d9-52ff-b44d-8c941f609fed.html | called | | Ned Lamont | Governor | Connecticut | | Democratic | False | 766265 | 59.4 | 18.8 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ned_Lamont | called | | Byron Donalds | Governor | Florida | | Republican | False | 4132363 | 50.0 | 1.3 | male | Black / African American, Jamaican and Panamanian heritage | https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/byron-donalds-florida-governor-win-gop-first-black-leader-jolly-rcna603345 | called | | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Governor | Georgia | | Democratic | True | 2271404 | 54.3 | 8.6 | female | Black / African American | https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/keisha-lance-bottoms-georgia-governor-win-democrats-flip-jackson-rcna603348 | called | | Josh Green | Governor | Hawaii | | Democratic | False | 278652 | 72.6 | 45.2 | male | Religion: Jewish | https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-small-island-of-judaism-in-hawaiian-politics/ | called | | Brad Little | Governor | Idaho | | Republican | False | 407200 | 57.1 | 24.8 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Little | called | | JB Pritzker | Governor | Illinois | | Democratic | False | 2351526 | 59.7 | 22.8 | male | Religion: Jewish | https://www.chicagojewishnews.com/2017/06/the-pritzker-family-is-one-of-the-most-prominent-in-chicagos-jewish-community-an-exclusive-interview-with-j-b-pritzker-who-wants-to-be-the-next-governor-of-illinois/ | called | | Rob Sand | Governor | Iowa | | Democratic | True | 757489 | 55.5 | 11.0 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_Sand | called | | | Governor | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | uncalled as of Wikipedia snapshot 2026-11-06 | | Hannah Pingree | Governor | Maine | | Democratic | False | 382760 | 54.6 | 17.3 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannah_Pingree | called | | Wes Moore | Governor | Maryland | | Democratic | False | 1171396 | 62.8 | 29.6 | male | Black / African American | https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/08/us/politics/maryland-governor-wes-moore.html | called | | Maura Healey | Governor | Massachusetts | | Democratic | False | 1618949 | 62.1 | 27.6 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maura_Healey | called | | Jocelyn Benson | Governor | Michigan | | Democratic | False | 2600636 | 54.5 | 10.7 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jocelyn_Benson | called | | Amy Klobuchar | Governor | Minnesota | | Democratic (DFL) | False | 1569698 | 55.5 | 12.9 | female | Slovene and German-Swiss descent | https://web.archive.org/web/20170223044030/http://www.startribune.com/born-to-ride-jim-klobuchar-and-the-birth-of-the-minnesota-bike-tour/320920321/ | called | | Jim Pillen | Governor | Nebraska | | Republican | False | 376284 | 50.8 | 8.6 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Pillen | called | | Aaron Ford | Governor | Nevada | | Democratic | True | 532026 | 51.4 | 7.1 | male | Black / African American | https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/midterm-election-results-2026-latest-updates/card/democrat-aaron-ford-will-be-nevada-s-first-black-governor-mbfiiweNYlwGsCdXVNlC | called | | Kelly Ayotte | Governor | New Hampshire | | Republican | False | 316798 | 51.2 | 3.9 | female | French-Canadian descent (paternal) | https://web.archive.org/web/20211231002459/https://theworld.org/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/120827/republican-stalwart-kelly-ayotte-speak-at-rnc-tu | called | | Deb Haaland | Governor | New Mexico | | Democratic | False | 415484 | 57.3 | 14.6 | female | Native American - enrolled member of Laguna Pueblo | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/03/deb-haaland-new-mexico-governor | called | | Kathy Hochul | Governor | New York | | Democratic | False | 3529746 | 59.6 | 19.4 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathy_Hochul | called | | Amy Acton | Governor | Ohio | | Democratic | True | 2404178 | 52.3 | 7.9 | female | Religion: Jewish | https://religionnews.com/2026/10/29/ohio-governor-vivek-ramaswamy-amy-acton-hindu-jewish-religion/ | called | | Mike Mazzei | Governor | Oklahoma | | Republican | False | 581706 | 51.9 | 6.0 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Mazzei | called | | Tina Kotek | Governor | Oregon | | Democratic | False | 843263 | 51.9 | 6.6 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tina_Kotek | called | | Josh Shapiro | Governor | Pennsylvania | | Democratic | False | 3002608 | 60.4 | 22.1 | male | Religion: Jewish | https://www.thejc.com/news/usa/who-is-josh-shapiro-the-potential-first-jewish-vice-president-flb3uvuc | called | | Helena Foulkes | Governor | Rhode Island | | Democratic | False | 206892 | 57.7 | 29.9 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helena_Foulkes | called | | Alan Wilson | Governor | South Carolina | | Republican | False | 1050190 | 51.6 | 4.5 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Wilson_(politician) | called | | Larry Rhoden | Governor | South Dakota | | Republican | False | 193317 | 63.5 | 27.0 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Rhoden | called | | Marsha Blackburn | Governor | Tennessee | | Republican | False | 955259 | 45.5 | 2.5 | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marsha_Blackburn | called | | Gina Hinojosa | Governor | Texas | | Democratic | True | 5230908 | 52.8 | 7.1 | female | Latina / Hispanic, Mexican descent | https://web.archive.org/web/20261021210549/https://www.expressnews.com/politics/article/gina-hinojosa-mom-voter-suppression-bexar-county-22485760.php | called | | Phil Scott | Governor | Vermont | | Republican | False | 163151 | 52.6 | 7.0 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Scott | called | | David Crowley | Governor | Wisconsin | | Democratic | False | 1438721 | 54.1 | 8.2 | male | Black / African American | https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/david-crowley-wisconsin-governor-election-win-democrat-tom-tiffany-gop-rcna603350 | called | | Eric Barlow | Governor | Wyoming | | Republican | False | 128480 | 68.6 | 51.8 | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Barlow | called | | Amish Shah | House | AZ | 1 | Democratic | True | | | | male | Indian American | https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/nri/us-canada-news/i-hope-to-be-the-sixth-indian-american-in-us-congress-says-dr-amish-shah/articleshow/100093556.cms | called | | JoAnna Mendoza | House | AZ | 6 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JoAnna_Mendoza | called | | Mike McGuire | House | CA | 1 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_McGuire_(politician) | called | | Randy Villegas | House | CA | 22 | Democratic | True | | | | male | Mexican American (parents Mexican immigrants) | https://laopinion.com/2026/06/09/randy-villegas-avanza-a-elecciones-generales-del-distrito-22-de-california/ | called | | Hilda Solis | House | CA | 38 | Democratic | True | | | | female | Latina / Hispanic, Mexican and Nicaraguan heritage (immigrant parents) | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilda_Solis | called | | Marni von Wilpert | House | CA | 48 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marni_von_Wilpert | called | | Richard Pan | House | CA | 6 | Democratic | True | | | | male | Taiwanese American | https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/09/us/politics/pan-ho-kiley-california-primary.html | called | | Eileen Laubacher | House | CO | 4 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eileen_Laubacher | called | | Jessica Killin | House | CO | 5 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jessica_Killin | called | | Manny Rutinel | House | CO | 8 | Democratic | True | | | | male | Dominican American / Latino | https://www.elnuevodia.com/english/news/story/a-third-dominican-manny-rutinel-wins-the-democratic-nomination-for-congress/ | called | | Alicia Limtiaco | House | GU | AL | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alicia_Limtiaco | called | | Christina Bohannan | House | IA | 1 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christina_Bohannan | called | | Lindsay James | House | IA | 2 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsay_James_(politician) | called | | Sarah Trone Garriott | House | IA | 3 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Trone_Garriott | called | | J. D. Ford | House | IN | 5 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Ford | called | | Zach Dembo | House | KY | 6 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zach_Dembo | called | | Paul LePage | House | ME | 2 | Republican | True | | | | male | French Canadian descent | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_LePage | called | | Christina Hines | House | MI | 10 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christina_Hines | called | | Sean McCann | House | MI | 4 | Democratic | True | | | | male | Native American - Citizen Potawatomi Nation | https://ictnews.org/politics/election-2026/two-potawatomi-candidates-facing-off-in-michigan-primary/ | called | | William Lawrence | House | MI | 7 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lawrence_(activist) | called | | Fred Wellman | House | MO | 2 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Wellman | called | | Sam Forstag | House | MT | 1 | Democratic | True | | | | male | Paternal Latvian Jewish family heritage; raised Roman Catholic | https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a71269113/sam-forstag-democratic-candidate-montana-house-smokejumper/ | called | | Jamie Ager | House | NC | 11 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Ager | called | | Paul Barringer | House | NC | 13 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Barringer_(attorney) | called | | LaKesha Womack | House | NC | 14 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaKesha_Womack | called | | Cyril Jefferson | House | NC | 6 | Democratic | True | | | | male | Black / African American | https://myfox8.com/news/politics/your-local-election-hq/cyril-jefferson-wins-high-point-mayoral-race-see-the-new-high-point-city-council/ | called | | Richard Ojeda | House | NC | 9 | Democratic | True | | | | male | Mexican American heritage (paternal grandfather immigrated from Jalisco) | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Ojeda | called | | Denise Powell | House | NE | 2 | Democratic | True | | | | female | Latina | https://metro.newschannelnebraska.com/story/370525381/denise-powell-makes-history-with-win-in-nebraskas-2nd-district | called | | Zack Mullock | House | NJ | 2 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zack_Mullock | called | | Rebecca Bennett | House | NJ | 7 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebecca_Bennett_(politician) | called | | Teresa Benitez-Thompson | House | NV | 2 | Democratic | True | | | | female | Latina | https://cawp.rutgers.edu/blog/results-women-congressional-and-statewide-executive-candidates-election-2026 | called | | Cait Conley | House | NY | 17 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cait_Conley | called | | Kristina Knickerbocker | House | OH | 10 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kristina_Knickerbocker | called | | Don Leonard | House | OH | 15 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Leonard_(politician) | called | | Brian Poindexter | House | OH | 7 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Poindexter | called | | Bob Harvie | House | PA | 1 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Harvie_(politician) | called | | Janelle Stelson | House | PA | 10 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janelle_Stelson | called | | Bob Brooks | House | PA | 7 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Brooks_(Pennsylvania_politician) | called | | Paige Cognetti | House | PA | 8 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paige_Cognetti | called | | Nancy Lacore | House | SC | 1 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Lacore | called | | Victoria Broderick | House | TN | 4 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Broderick | called | | Brent Taylor | House | TN | 9 | Republican | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brent_Taylor_(Tennessee_politician) | called | | Bobby Pulido | House | TX | 15 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Pulido | called | | Katy Padilla Stout | House | TX | 23 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katy_Padilla_Stout | called | | Jace Yarbrough | House | TX | 32 | Republican | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jace_Yarbrough | called | | Ben McAdams | House | UT | 1 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_McAdams | called | | Shannon Taylor | House | VA | 1 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shannon_Taylor_(attorney) | called | | Elaine Luria | House | VA | 2 | Democratic | True | | | | female | Religion: Jewish | https://forward.com/news/411060/navy-vet-represents-fresh-wave-of-jewish-women-running-for-congress/ | called | | Mitchell Berman | House | WI | 1 | Democratic | True | | | | male | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitchell_Berman_(politician) | called | | Rebecca Cooke | House | WI | 3 | Democratic | True | | | | female | not documented | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebecca_Cooke_(politician) | called | | Melat Kiros | House | CO | 1 | Democratic | False | | | | female | Black, Born in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia | https://cawp.rutgers.edu/blog/results-women-congressional-and-statewide-executive-candidates-election-2026 | called | | Claire Valdez | House | NY | 7 | Democratic | False | | | | female | Native American (per CAWP; tribal affiliation not documented) | https://cawp.rutgers.edu/blog/results-women-congressional-and-statewide-executive-candidates-election-2026 | called | ### Data: records Records reported this week, with sources. Source: As cited. Full data in the JSON file: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/representation/data.json (dataset "records"). --- ## License and credit Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well. Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/representation/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/representation/data.json --- title: "Where every number comes from" url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/methodology/ publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic) published: 2026-11-05 updated: 2026-11-06 license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) credit: "Source: politic.design" data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/methodology/data.json pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/methodology/methodology.pdf --- Methodology · Midterms 2026 # Where every number comes from Each chart, its data, what we did to it and where it can mislead. Every dataset is stored with a content hash, its receipt, so any figure can be recomputed from the same rows. | Chart | Data | Method | Limits | |---|---|---|---| | **Tipping scale** and **ballot** | Group margins for 2020 and 2024 (presidential) and 2026 (House) as published in a widely shared reference chart; group shares of 2026 voters from the [NBC News/SSRS exit poll](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/exit-polls). | Margins read from pixel positions (about ±1 point). A group's push on the national margin = its share × its swing. The balance point is the share-weighted average margin; the tilt is the turning force around Even, capped at 6°. | Exit polls are estimates; subgroup error runs to several points. Shares are held at their 2026 values, so the balance ignores changes in who turned out. | | **The bill** (receipt) | NBC News/SSRS exit poll, top-issue question and issue items; 122.7m ballots (state tallies compiled by Al Jazeera). | Net votes per issue = share naming it × (D% − R%) × ballots. Because the top-issue shares cover every voter, the lines add up to the national margin. | Says how issue voters split, not what caused their vote. "Also on the tab" items overlap and are not added. | | **The kerb** | NBC News/SSRS exit poll crosstabs. | Margin = D% − R% per group; the band marks ±6 points. | Groups overlap; small groups (4–5% of voters) carry wide error. | | **Covers** | [GDELT DOC 2.0](https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/doc/doc), US English-language sources, 5 Aug–4 Nov 2026, collected by Brantopic. | Daily matching articles ÷ all articles GDELT read that day. Brantopic's quasi-Poisson gate flags days above a 0.1% false-alarm bound, with a 28-day minimum baseline. Cover lines are headlines from each issue's busiest day. | Keyword queries miss some stories and catch some off-topic ones. GDELT covers what it crawls, not all news. | | **Blue wave** city | [The Downballot](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-calculations-of-presidential)'s 2024 presidential results on the 2026 district lines; [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-districts-flipped-2026-midterm-elections/)'s list of flipped seats (5 Nov). | Uniform swing: a seat is under water when the national shift exceeds Trump's 2024 margin there. Tower layout (shore to inland by margin) is for legibility only. | Dozens of races were uncalled on 5 Nov. Incumbency and candidates make real seats depart from uniform swing. | | **Texas relief** | [Decision Desk HQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/texas-us-senate-general-election) county results (2026 Senate, 2024 President, 2022 turnout); [us-atlas](https://github.com/topojson/us-atlas) county shapes. | Swing = 2026 Senate margin − 2024 presidential margin. Height ∝ swing; colour = 2026 margin or ballots against 2022. | Senate against President, so part of the swing is the candidates. 41 counties were still counting on 5–6 Nov. | | **Convention** hall | NBC News/SSRS exit poll: recalled 2024 vote × 2026 House vote. | 990 seats, each 0.1% of voters. Turnout effect = margin with the actual 2026 mix of Harris and Trump voters minus the margin with the 2024 mix, holding loyalty rates fixed. | People misremember their past vote, usually toward the winner. To be checked against voter files (Catalist, L2) in 2027. | | **Topline** | Network projections (NBC, CBS, CNN, Yahoo/Newsweek), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/5/visualising-how-the-us-midterms-turned-the-map-blue) turnout, [AdImpact](https://thewrap.com/media-platforms/politics/midterm-elections-political-ad-spending-record-2026/) spending. | Taken as reported on 4–6 Nov. | Preliminary until states certify in December. | Sources ## Sources Sources - [NBC News, national exit polls 2026](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/exit-polls) (SSRS) - [CBS News, House districts that flipped](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-districts-flipped-2026-midterm-elections/) - [CBS News, how Democrats won (exit polls)](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-exit-polls-2026-midterms-democrats/) - [CBS News, Senate results](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/senate-election-results-2026/) - [Al Jazeera, turnout and flips](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/5/visualising-how-the-us-midterms-turned-the-map-blue) - [Yahoo News, the numbers behind the rout](https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/article/democrats-2026-midterm-rout-was-big--really-big-here-are-the-numbers-that-prove-it-225923613.html) - [CNN, a historic House majority](https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/05/politics/democrats-house-majority-historic-midterms) - [NPR, six takeaways](https://www.npr.org/2026/11/04/nx-s1-6022216/midterms-democrats-trump-republicans-analysis) - [PBS/AP Voter Poll, key groups](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-voter-poll-how-key-demographic-groups-voted-in-the-2026-midterms) - [Texas Tribune, border counties](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/04/texas-border-counties-voter-turnout/) - [Daily Yonder, rural Texas](https://dailyyonder.com/rural-border-communities-fuel-democratic-gains-across-texas/2026/11/05/) - [Axios San Antonio, Latino-majority counties](https://www.axios.com/local/san-antonio/2026/11/04/democrats-win-gop-counties-texas-midterms) - [TheWrap / AdImpact, record ad spending](https://thewrap.com/media-platforms/politics/midterm-elections-political-ad-spending-record-2026/) - [AdImpact party split (via Fox5 Vegas)](https://www.fox5vegas.com/2026/10/29/2026-midterms-set-new-record-political-ad-spending) - [PollCheck, generic-ballot average](https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/generic-ballot) - [Ballotpedia, California redistricting](https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_California_ahead_of_the_2026_elections) - [GDELT DOC 2.0 API](https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/doc/doc), collected through Brantopic - [Decision Desk HQ, Texas Senate county results](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/texas-us-senate-general-election) - [The Downballot, 2024 presidential results on 2026 district lines](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-calculations-of-presidential) - [us-atlas county shapes](https://github.com/topojson/us-atlas) - Swing-chart survey: [Datawrapper on arrow maps](https://www.datawrapper.de/blog/arrow-maps), [Data Viz Project on dumbbells](https://datavizproject.com/data-type/dumbbell-plot), [Visualising Data on the swingometer](https://visualisingdata.com/?p=467), [Cook demographic swingometer](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/swingometer/introducing-2024-cook-political-report-demographic-swingometer), [FiveThirtyEight Swing-O-Matic](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-swing-the-election) ## The data behind this page ### Data: visual_grammar The ten metaphors used across the gazette. Source: politic.design. | name | idea | form | used_in | |---|---|---|---| | Weight transfer | Groups as weights on the margin ruler; the national margin is where the ruler balances. Under braking a car's load shifts and its balance moves; so does a country's. | 2.5D | Story 1 | | The ballot | The swing counted as filled bubbles on a ballot paper, each contest coloured by the groups that filled it. Separates loud swings from big ones. | 2D | Story 1 | | The kerb | The painted strip at the edge of the track: groups within six points of even, where the next race is won or lost. | 2D | Story 2 | | The receipt | An itemised bill of grievances with a total at the bottom. Also the house style: a source under every number. | 2D | Story 2 | | Cover story | Each issue as a magazine cover, its news-coverage line printed full-bleed behind the headline, with Brantopic's flagged days as hot spots. | 2D | Story 2 | | The blue wave | Districts as a city of towers at their Trump margin; the national swing as a sea that rises through the streets; redrawn maps as levees. | 3D | Story 3 | | Tectonic relief | County swing extruded as terrain. South Texas rises as a new range; the fault lines show where it moved and back. | 3D | Story 4 | | Jet stream | One arrow per county, length and angle set by the swing, so the map reads like a weather front moving across the Sun Belt. | 2D map | Story 4 | | The convention | The electorate as a 990-seat hall: delegations for how people voted last time, flags for how they voted this time, voices from the floor. | 3D | Story 5 | | Pendulum | Every midterm since 1946 as one swing of the president's party. 2026 swings furthest since 1974. Evergreen explainer. | 2.5D | Across the gazette | --- ## License and credit Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well. Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/methodology/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/methodology/data.json