{
 "title": "The Blue Wave",
 "description": "Democrats took every Republican seat Trump won by less than ten points, and a few the tide should never have reached. Most of those few were in states that had just redrawn their maps to add Republican seats.",
 "url": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/",
 "published": "2026-11-05",
 "updated": "2026-11-06",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "politic.design",
  "url": "https://politic.design",
  "made_by": {
   "name": "Brantopic",
   "url": "https://brantopic.com/"
  }
 },
 "license": {
  "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)",
  "id": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
 },
 "credit": "politic.design",
 "suggested_credit": "Source: politic.design",
 "terms": "Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well.",
 "independence": "politic.design has no affiliation with any political party, candidate or campaign, in the US or anywhere else.",
 "status": "Preliminary: results are counted before certification (states certify in December 2026).",
 "notes": {
  "data": "The Downballot's 2024 presidential results on the 2026 district lines; CBS News's list of flipped seats (5 Nov). At certification: AP results for every race.",
  "key finding": "\"Democrats flipped all 28 Republican-held seats that Trump won by less than ten points; six of their eight gains beyond Trump+15 came in North Carolina and Texas, which had just redrawn their maps.\""
 },
 "receipts": [
  "sha256:9e3e17c73411c163"
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  "html": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/",
  "markdown": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/index.md",
  "json": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/data.json",
  "pdf": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/blue-wave.pdf"
 },
 "datasets": [
  {
   "name": "districts",
   "description": "Republican-held House seats with Trump's 2024 margin on the 2026 lines and the 2026 result.",
   "source": "The Downballot 2024 presidential margins on 2026 lines; CBS News flip list (5 Nov 2026)",
   "columns": {
    "margin_2024_pres": "2024 presidential margin on the 2026 lines, in points; positive = Harris, negative = Trump",
    "flip_2026": "party that flipped it, blank if held or uncalled"
   },
   "records": [
    {
     "district": "AK-AL",
     "margin_2024_pres": -13.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Nick Begich"
    },
    {
     "district": "AL-01",
     "margin_2024_pres": -36.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Barry Moore"
    },
    {
     "district": "AL-03",
     "margin_2024_pres": -47.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Mike Rogers"
    },
    {
     "district": "AL-04",
     "margin_2024_pres": -66.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Robert Aderholt"
    },
    {
     "district": "AL-05",
     "margin_2024_pres": -29.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Dale Strong"
    },
    {
     "district": "AL-06",
     "margin_2024_pres": -35.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Gary Palmer"
    },
    {
     "district": "AR-01",
     "margin_2024_pres": -45.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Rick Crawford"
    },
    {
     "district": "AR-02",
     "margin_2024_pres": -16.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "French Hill"
    },
    {
     "district": "AR-03",
     "margin_2024_pres": -25.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Steve Womack"
    },
    {
     "district": "AR-04",
     "margin_2024_pres": -40.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Bruce Westerman"
    },
    {
     "district": "AZ-01",
     "margin_2024_pres": -3.0,
     "flip_2026": "D",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "David Schweikert"
    },
    {
     "district": "AZ-02",
     "margin_2024_pres": -15.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Eli Crane"
    },
    {
     "district": "AZ-05",
     "margin_2024_pres": -20.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Andy Biggs"
    },
    {
     "district": "AZ-06",
     "margin_2024_pres": -1.0,
     "flip_2026": "D",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Juan Ciscomani"
    },
    {
     "district": "AZ-08",
     "margin_2024_pres": -16.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Abe Hamadeh"
    },
    {
     "district": "AZ-09",
     "margin_2024_pres": -31.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Paul Gosar"
    },
    {
     "district": "CA-01",
     "margin_2024_pres": 12.0,
     "flip_2026": "D",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "James Gallagher"
    },
    {
     "district": "CA-05",
     "margin_2024_pres": -21.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Tom McClintock"
    },
    {
     "district": "CA-06",
     "margin_2024_pres": 8.0,
     "flip_2026": "D",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Ami Bera"
    },
    {
     "district": "CA-20",
     "margin_2024_pres": -32.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Vince Fong"
    },
    {
     "district": "CA-22",
     "margin_2024_pres": -2.0,
     "flip_2026": "D",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "David Valadao"
    },
    {
     "district": "CA-23",
     "margin_2024_pres": -19.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Jay Obernolte"
    },
    {
     "district": "CA-40",
     "margin_2024_pres": -12.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Young Kim"
    },
    {
     "district": "CA-41",
     "margin_2024_pres": 14.0,
     "flip_2026": "D",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Ken Calvert"
    },
    {
     "district": "CA-48",
     "margin_2024_pres": 3.0,
     "flip_2026": "D",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Darrell Issa"
    },
    {
     "district": "CO-03",
     "margin_2024_pres": -10.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Jeff Hurd"
    },
    {
     "district": "CO-04",
     "margin_2024_pres": -18.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Lauren Boebert"
    },
    {
     "district": "CO-05",
     "margin_2024_pres": -9.0,
     "flip_2026": "D",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Jeff Crank"
    },
    {
     "district": "CO-08",
     "margin_2024_pres": -2.0,
     "flip_2026": "D",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Gabe Evans"
    },
    {
     "district": "FL-01",
     "margin_2024_pres": -37.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Jimmy Patronis"
    },
    {
     "district": "FL-02",
     "margin_2024_pres": -18.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Neal Dunn"
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    {
     "district": "FL-03",
     "margin_2024_pres": -21.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Kat Cammack"
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    {
     "district": "FL-04",
     "margin_2024_pres": -12.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Aaron Bean"
    },
    {
     "district": "FL-05",
     "margin_2024_pres": -21.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "John Rutherford"
    },
    {
     "district": "FL-06",
     "margin_2024_pres": -30.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Randy Fine"
    },
    {
     "district": "FL-07",
     "margin_2024_pres": -12.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Cory Mills"
    },
    {
     "district": "FL-08",
     "margin_2024_pres": -16.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Mike Haridopolos"
    },
    {
     "district": "FL-11",
     "margin_2024_pres": -16.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Daniel Webster"
    },
    {
     "district": "FL-12",
     "margin_2024_pres": -15.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Gus Bilirakis"
    },
    {
     "district": "FL-13",
     "margin_2024_pres": -13.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Anna Paulina Luna"
    },
    {
     "district": "FL-15",
     "margin_2024_pres": -20.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Laurel Lee"
    },
    {
     "district": "FL-16",
     "margin_2024_pres": -14.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Vern Buchanan"
    },
    {
     "district": "FL-17",
     "margin_2024_pres": -22.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Greg Steube"
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    {
     "district": "FL-18",
     "margin_2024_pres": -17.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Scott Franklin"
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    {
     "district": "FL-19",
     "margin_2024_pres": -30.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Byron Donalds"
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    {
     "district": "FL-21",
     "margin_2024_pres": -16.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Brian Mast"
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    {
     "district": "FL-26",
     "margin_2024_pres": -18.0,
     "flip_2026": "",
     "redrawn_map": false,
     "incumbent": "Mario Diaz-Balart"
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    {
     "district": "FL-27",
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     "incumbent": "Maria Elvira Salazar"
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     "district": "FL-28",
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     "incumbent": "Carlos Gimenez"
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    {
     "district": "GA-01",
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     "incumbent": "Buddy Carter"
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    {
     "district": "GA-03",
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     "incumbent": "Brian Jack"
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    {
     "district": "GA-07",
     "margin_2024_pres": -22.0,
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     "incumbent": "Rich McCormick"
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     "district": "GA-08",
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     "incumbent": "Austin Scott"
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     "incumbent": "Andrew Clyde"
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     "incumbent": "Mike Collins"
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     "incumbent": "Mariannette Miller-Meeks"
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     "incumbent": "Julia Letlow"
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     "incumbent": "Tim Walberg"
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     "incumbent": "Lisa McClain"
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    {
     "district": "MI-10",
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     "incumbent": "John James"
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