---
title: "The Blue Wave"
url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/
publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic)
published: 2026-11-05
updated: 2026-11-06
license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
credit: "Source: politic.design"
data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/data.json
pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/blue-wave.pdf
---

Story 3 of 5 · Seats · 3D · Midterms 2026

# The Blue Wave

Democrats took every Republican seat Trump won by less than ten points, and a few the tide should never have reached. Most of those few were in states that had just redrawn their maps to add Republican seats.

By the politic.design data desk · 5 Nov 2026, updated 6 Nov 2026 · Preliminary counts

Line up the 220 Republican-held districts by how much Trump won them by in 2024, on the lines used this year, and the result reads like a tide chart. The national swing since 2024 is about 15 points, which on a uniform swing puts 54 Republican seats under water. Democrats have taken all 28 that Trump won by less than ten points (or that Harris carried), 7 of the 26 he won by 10 to 14, and none of the safer seats except eight.

The seats that beat the tide are the story. Of the eight flips in districts Trump won by 15 or more, six are in North Carolina and Texas, both of which redrew their maps in 2025 to add Republican seats: North Carolina's 6th, 9th, 13th and 14th, and Texas's 15th and 23rd. Spreading Republican voters thinly across more seats leaves each with a smaller cushion, so a big enough wave goes over all of them at once. Across the four states that redrew for the GOP (Texas, North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri), Democrats made 11 of their 43 gains.

- California's Prop 50 map did what it was drawn to do: Democrats took CA-01, CA-06, CA-22, CA-41 and CA-48.
- Senate: Democrats flipped seats in states Trump won by 12 points on average. The last midterm with more than two such flips was 1986.
- Polling miss: final averages had Democrats near D+9; the count is heading to D+12–14. In Texas, Talarico led by 2.6 in the polls and won by 12.

**Data:** The Downballot's 2024 presidential results on the 2026 district lines; CBS News's list of flipped seats (5 Nov). At certification: AP results for every race.

**Key finding:** "Democrats flipped all 28 Republican-held seats that Trump won by less than ten points; six of their eight gains beyond Trump+15 came in North Carolina and Texas, which had just redrawn their maps."

### A city under the blue wave

**In short:** Each tower is a Republican-held House seat. The taller it is, the more Trump won it by in 2024. The sea is the national swing toward Democrats: anything above the water stays Republican red, towers under water are seats that swing could flip, and blue towers are the ones that actually flipped. Amber roofs are states that redrew their maps for the GOP.

National swing from 202415 pts

drag to turn · hover a tower

Flipped to DemocratsStill Republican above the waterUnder water, not flipped (held or uncalled)Redrawn map

Uniform-swing reading: a seat is under water when the national shift since 2024 is bigger than Trump's 2024 margin there. Towers are laid out shortest at the shore, tallest inland; streets and positions are for legibility only. Flips from CBS News's list as of 5 Nov; dozens of races were still uncalled.

## The data behind this page

### Data: districts

Republican-held House seats with Trump's 2024 margin on the 2026 lines and the 2026 result. Source: The Downballot 2024 presidential margins on 2026 lines; CBS News flip list (5 Nov 2026).

| district | margin_2024_pres | flip_2026 | redrawn_map | incumbent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | -13.0 |  | False | Nick Begich |
| AL-01 | -36.0 |  | False | Barry Moore |
| AL-03 | -47.0 |  | False | Mike Rogers |
| AL-04 | -66.0 |  | False | Robert Aderholt |
| AL-05 | -29.0 |  | False | Dale Strong |
| AL-06 | -35.0 |  | False | Gary Palmer |
| AR-01 | -45.0 |  | False | Rick Crawford |
| AR-02 | -16.0 |  | False | French Hill |
| AR-03 | -25.0 |  | False | Steve Womack |
| AR-04 | -40.0 |  | False | Bruce Westerman |
| AZ-01 | -3.0 | D | False | David Schweikert |
| AZ-02 | -15.0 |  | False | Eli Crane |
| AZ-05 | -20.0 |  | False | Andy Biggs |
| AZ-06 | -1.0 | D | False | Juan Ciscomani |
| AZ-08 | -16.0 |  | False | Abe Hamadeh |
| AZ-09 | -31.0 |  | False | Paul Gosar |
| CA-01 | 12.0 | D | False | James Gallagher |
| CA-05 | -21.0 |  | False | Tom McClintock |
| CA-06 | 8.0 | D | False | Ami Bera |
| CA-20 | -32.0 |  | False | Vince Fong |
| CA-22 | -2.0 | D | False | David Valadao |
| CA-23 | -19.0 |  | False | Jay Obernolte |
| CA-40 | -12.0 |  | False | Young Kim |
| CA-41 | 14.0 | D | False | Ken Calvert |
| CA-48 | 3.0 | D | False | Darrell Issa |
| CO-03 | -10.0 |  | False | Jeff Hurd |
| CO-04 | -18.0 |  | False | Lauren Boebert |
| CO-05 | -9.0 | D | False | Jeff Crank |
| CO-08 | -2.0 | D | False | Gabe Evans |
| FL-01 | -37.0 |  | False | Jimmy Patronis |
| FL-02 | -18.0 |  | False | Neal Dunn |
| FL-03 | -21.0 |  | False | Kat Cammack |
| FL-04 | -12.0 |  | False | Aaron Bean |
| FL-05 | -21.0 |  | False | John Rutherford |
| FL-06 | -30.0 |  | False | Randy Fine |
| FL-07 | -12.0 |  | False | Cory Mills |
| FL-08 | -16.0 |  | False | Mike Haridopolos |
| FL-11 | -16.0 |  | False | Daniel Webster |
| FL-12 | -15.0 |  | False | Gus Bilirakis |
| FL-13 | -13.0 |  | False | Anna Paulina Luna |
| FL-15 | -20.0 |  | False | Laurel Lee |
| FL-16 | -14.0 |  | False | Vern Buchanan |
| FL-17 | -22.0 |  | False | Greg Steube |
| FL-18 | -17.0 |  | False | Scott Franklin |
| FL-19 | -30.0 |  | False | Byron Donalds |
| FL-21 | -16.0 |  | False | Brian Mast |
| FL-26 | -18.0 |  | False | Mario Diaz-Balart |
| FL-27 | -15.0 |  | False | Maria Elvira Salazar |
| FL-28 | -25.0 |  | False | Carlos Gimenez |
| GA-01 | -16.0 |  | False | Buddy Carter |
| GA-03 | -30.0 |  | False | Brian Jack |
| GA-07 | -22.0 |  | False | Rich McCormick |
| GA-08 | -31.0 |  | False | Austin Scott |
| GA-09 | -34.0 |  | False | Andrew Clyde |
| GA-10 | -21.0 |  | False | Mike Collins |
| GA-11 | -23.0 |  | False | Barry Loudermilk |
| GA-12 | -14.0 |  | False | Rick Allen |
| GA-14 | -37.0 |  | False | Clay Fuller |
| IA-01 | -8.0 | D | False | Mariannette Miller-Meeks |
| IA-02 | -10.0 | D | False | Ashley Hinson |
| IA-03 | -4.0 | D | False | Zach Nunn |
| IA-04 | -31.0 |  | False | Randy Feenstra |
| ID-01 | -45.0 |  | False | Russ Fulcher |
| ID-02 | -27.0 |  | False | Mike Simpson |
| IL-12 | -43.0 |  | False | Mike Bost |
| IL-15 | -40.0 |  | False | Mary Miller |
| IL-16 | -23.0 |  | False | Darin LaHood |
| IN-02 | -27.0 |  | False | Rudy Yakym |
| IN-03 | -31.0 |  | False | Marlin Stutzman |
| IN-04 | -29.0 |  | False | Jim Baird |
| IN-05 | -17.0 | D | False | Victoria Spartz |
| IN-06 | -33.0 |  | False | Jefferson Shreve |
| IN-08 | -36.0 |  | False | Mark Messmer |
| IN-09 | -30.0 |  | False | Erin Houchin |
| KS-01 | -31.0 |  | False | Tracey Mann |
| KS-02 | -20.0 |  | False | Derek Schmidt |
| KS-04 | -23.0 |  | False | Ron Estes |
| KY-01 | -47.0 |  | False | James Comer |
| KY-02 | -41.0 |  | False | Brett Guthrie |
| KY-04 | -36.0 |  | False | Thomas Massie |
| KY-05 | -64.0 |  | False | Hal Rogers |
| KY-06 | -15.0 | D | False | Andy Barr |
| LA-01 | -38.0 |  | False | Steve Scalise |
| LA-03 | -36.0 |  | False | Clay Higgins |
| LA-04 | -34.0 |  | False | Mike Johnson |
| LA-05 | -34.0 |  | False | Julia Letlow |
| MD-01 | -17.0 |  | False | Andy Harris |
| MI-01 | -21.0 |  | False | Jack Bergman |
| MI-02 | -30.0 |  | False | John Moolenaar |
| MI-04 | -6.0 | D | False | Bill Huizenga |
| MI-05 | -27.0 |  | False | Tim Walberg |
| MI-07 | -1.0 | D | False | Tom Barrett |
| MI-09 | -32.0 |  | False | Lisa McClain |
| MI-10 | -7.0 | D | False | John James |
| MN-01 | -12.0 |  | False | Brad Finstad |
| MN-06 | -20.0 |  | False | Tom Emmer |
| MN-07 | -36.0 |  | False | Michelle Fischbach |
| MN-08 | -14.0 |  | False | Pete Stauber |
| MO-02 | -8.0 | D | True | Ann Wagner |
| MO-03 | -27.0 |  | True | Bob Onder |
| MO-04 | -42.0 |  | True | Mark Alford |
| MO-06 | -39.0 |  | True | Sam Graves |
| MO-07 | -43.0 |  | True | Eric Burlison |
| MO-08 | -54.0 |  | True | Jason Smith |
| MS-01 | -37.0 |  | False | Trent Kelly |
| MS-03 | -29.0 |  | False | Michael Guest |
| MS-04 | -43.0 |  | False | Mike Ezell |
| MT-01 | -12.0 | D | False | Ryan Zinke |
| MT-02 | -30.0 |  | False | Troy Downing |
| NC-03 | -14.0 |  | True | Greg Murphy |
| NC-05 | -18.0 |  | True | Virginia Foxx |
| NC-06 | -17.0 | D | True | Addison McDowell |
| NC-07 | -14.0 |  | True | David Rouzer |
| NC-08 | -19.0 |  | True | Mark Harris |
| NC-09 | -16.0 | D | True | Richard Hudson |
| NC-10 | -18.0 |  | True | Pat Harrigan |
| NC-11 | -10.0 | D | True | Chuck Edwards |
| NC-13 | -16.0 | D | True | Brad Knott |
| NC-14 | -15.0 | D | True | Tim Moore |
| ND-AL | -37.0 |  | False | Julie Fedorchak |
| NE-01 | -13.0 |  | False | Mike Flood |
| NE-02 | 5.0 | D | False | Don Bacon |
| NE-03 | -54.0 |  | False | Adrian Smith |
| NJ-02 | -13.0 | D | False | Jeff Van Drew |
| NJ-04 | -30.0 |  | False | Chris Smith |
| NJ-07 | -1.0 | D | False | Tom Kean |
| NV-02 | -14.0 | D | False | Mark Amodei |
| NY-01 | -10.0 |  | False | Nick LaLota |
| NY-02 | -14.0 |  | False | Andrew Garbarino |
| NY-11 | -24.0 |  | False | Nicole Malliotakis |
| NY-17 | 1.0 | D | False | Mike Lawler |
| NY-21 | -21.0 |  | False | Elise Stefanik |
| NY-23 | -21.0 |  | False | Nick Langworthy |
| NY-24 | -23.0 |  | False | Claudia Tenney |
| OH-02 | -42.0 |  | True | David Taylor |
| OH-04 | -43.0 |  | True | Jim Jordan |
| OH-05 | -24.0 |  | True | Bob Latta |
| OH-06 | -35.0 |  | True | Michael Rulli |
| OH-07 | -11.0 | D | True | Max Miller |
| OH-08 | -16.0 |  | True | Warren Davidson |
| OH-10 | -8.0 | D | True | Mike Turner |
| OH-12 | -30.0 |  | True | Troy Balderson |
| OH-14 | -20.0 |  | True | Dave Joyce |
| OH-15 | -10.0 | D | True | Mike Carey |
| OK-01 | -22.0 |  | False | Kevin Hern |
| OK-02 | -56.0 |  | False | Josh Brecheen |
| OK-03 | -46.0 |  | False | Frank Lucas |
| OK-04 | -33.0 |  | False | Tom Cole |
| OK-05 | -18.0 |  | False | Stephanie Bice |
| OR-02 | -27.0 |  | False | Cliff Bentz |
| PA-01 | 0.0 | D | False | Brian Fitzpatrick |
| PA-07 | -3.0 | D | False | Ryan Mackenzie |
| PA-08 | -9.0 | D | False | Rob Bresnahan |
| PA-09 | -38.0 |  | False | Dan Meuser |
| PA-10 | -5.0 | D | False | Scott Perry |
| PA-11 | -21.0 |  | False | Lloyd Smucker |
| PA-13 | -46.0 |  | False | John Joyce |
| PA-14 | -33.0 |  | False | Guy Reschenthaler |
| PA-15 | -38.0 |  | False | Glenn Thompson |
| PA-16 | -23.0 |  | False | Mike Kelly |
| SC-01 | -13.0 |  | False | Nancy Mace |
| SC-02 | -14.0 |  | False | Joe Wilson |
| SC-03 | -43.0 |  | False | Sheri Biggs |
| SC-04 | -24.0 |  | False | William Timmons |
| SC-05 | -23.0 |  | False | Ralph Norman |
| SC-07 | -26.0 |  | False | Russell Fry |
| SD-AL | -29.0 |  | False | Dusty Johnson |
| TN-01 | -58.0 |  | False | Diana Harshbarger |
| TN-02 | -34.0 |  | False | Tim Burchett |
| TN-03 | -36.0 |  | False | Chuck Fleischmann |
| TN-04 | -24.0 |  | False | Scott DesJarlais |
| TN-05 | -23.0 |  | False | Andy Ogles |
| TN-06 | -27.0 |  | False | John Rose |
| TN-07 | -22.0 |  | False | Matt Van Epps |
| TN-08 | -20.0 |  | False | David Kustoff |
| TX-01 | -50.0 |  | True | Nathaniel Moran |
| TX-02 | -23.0 |  | True | Dan Crenshaw |
| TX-03 | -23.0 |  | True | Keith Self |
| TX-04 | -25.0 |  | True | Pat Fallon |
| TX-05 | -22.0 |  | True | Lance Gooden |
| TX-06 | -23.0 |  | True | Jake Ellzey |
| TX-08 | -28.0 |  | True | Morgan Luttrell |
| TX-10 | -23.0 |  | True | Michael McCaul |
| TX-11 | -34.0 |  | True | August Pfluger |
| TX-12 | -24.0 |  | True | Craig Goldman |
| TX-13 | -46.0 |  | True | Ronny Jackson |
| TX-14 | -24.0 |  | True | Randy Weber |
| TX-15 | -18.0 | D | True | Monica De La Cruz |
| TX-17 | -22.0 |  | True | Pete Sessions |
| TX-19 | -52.0 |  | True | Jodey Arrington |
| TX-21 | -22.0 |  | True | Chip Roy |
| TX-22 | -22.0 |  | True | Troy Nehls |
| TX-23 | -15.0 | D | True | VACANT (Gonzales) |
| TX-24 | -16.0 |  | True | Beth Van Duyne |
| TX-25 | -24.0 |  | True | Roger Williams |
| TX-26 | -24.0 |  | True | Brandon Gill |
| TX-27 | -21.0 |  | True | Michael Cloud |
| TX-31 | -22.0 |  | True | John Carter |
| TX-36 | -25.0 |  | True | Brian Babin |
| TX-38 | -21.0 |  | True | Wesley Hunt |
| UT-01 | 24.0 | D | False | Blake Moore |
| UT-02 | -29.0 |  | False | Celeste Maloy |
| UT-03 | -41.0 |  | False | Mike Kennedy |
| UT-04 | -33.0 |  | False | Burgess Owens |
| VA-01 | -5.0 | D | False | Rob Wittman |
| VA-02 | 0.0 | D | False | Jen Kiggans |
| VA-05 | -12.0 |  | False | John McGuire |
| VA-06 | -24.0 |  | False | Ben Cline |
| VA-09 | -44.0 |  | False | Morgan Griffith |
| WA-04 | -21.0 |  | False | Dan Newhouse |
| WA-05 | -11.0 |  | False | Michael Baumgartner |
| WI-01 | -5.0 | D | False | Bryan Steil |
| WI-03 | -7.0 | D | False | Derrick Van Orden |
| WI-05 | -22.0 |  | False | Scott Fitzgerald |
| WI-06 | -16.0 |  | False | Glenn Grothman |
| WI-07 | -23.0 |  | False | Tom Tiffany |
| WI-08 | -16.0 |  | False | Tony Wied |
| WV-01 | -44.0 |  | False | Carol Miller |
| WV-02 | -40.0 |  | False | Riley Moore |
| WY-AL | -46.0 |  | False | Harriet Hageman |


Receipts (content hashes of the source files): sha256:9e3e17c73411c163


---

## License and credit

Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well.

Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/blue-wave/data.json