{
 "title": "The Borderlands",
 "description": "Texas swung 26 points in two years and every one of its 254 counties moved the same way. The border moved furthest.",
 "url": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/",
 "published": "2026-11-05",
 "updated": "2026-11-06",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "politic.design",
  "url": "https://politic.design",
  "made_by": {
   "name": "Brantopic",
   "url": "https://brantopic.com/"
  }
 },
 "license": {
  "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)",
  "id": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
 },
 "credit": "politic.design",
 "suggested_credit": "Source: politic.design",
 "terms": "Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well.",
 "independence": "politic.design has no affiliation with any political party, candidate or campaign, in the US or anywhere else.",
 "status": "Preliminary: results are counted before certification (states certify in December 2026).",
 "notes": {
  "data": "Decision Desk HQ county results (2026 Senate, 2024 President, 2022 turnout); us-atlas county shapes. The comparison is Senate against President, so some of the swing is the candidates. 41 counties were still counting on 5 Nov.",
  "key finding": "\"Every one of Texas's 254 counties swung towards the Democrats in 2026; Starr County moved 72 points in two years.\""
 },
 "receipts": [
  "sha256:b1d9ed90534f141a"
 ],
 "downloads": {
  "html": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/",
  "markdown": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/index.md",
  "json": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/data.json",
  "pdf": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/borderlands.pdf"
 },
 "datasets": [
  {
   "name": "counties",
   "description": "Every Texas county: 2024 presidential and 2026 Senate margins (positive = Democratic), swing and ballots.",
   "source": "Decision Desk HQ county results (TX US Senate 2026, President 2024), us-atlas counties-10m",
   "records": [
    {
     "fips": "471",
     "county": "Walker",
     "margin_2024_pres": -39.9,
     "margin_2026_senate": -19.1,
     "swing": 20.9,
     "turnout_2022": 17347,
     "turnout_2024": 25170,
     "turnout_2026": 21628,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "047",
     "county": "Brooks",
     "margin_2024_pres": 9.6,
     "margin_2026_senate": 40.5,
     "swing": 30.9,
     "turnout_2022": 1951,
     "turnout_2024": 2402,
     "turnout_2026": 1813,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "117",
     "county": "Deaf Smith",
     "margin_2024_pres": -51.7,
     "margin_2026_senate": -15.0,
     "swing": 36.6,
     "turnout_2022": 2703,
     "turnout_2024": 4286,
     "turnout_2026": 3523,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "219",
     "county": "Hockley",
     "margin_2024_pres": -66.3,
     "margin_2026_senate": -45.9,
     "swing": 20.4,
     "turnout_2022": 5341,
     "turnout_2024": 7987,
     "turnout_2026": 6440,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "417",
     "county": "Shackelford",
     "margin_2024_pres": -82.2,
     "margin_2026_senate": -74.0,
     "swing": 8.2,
     "turnout_2022": 1039,
     "turnout_2024": 1727,
     "turnout_2026": 1279,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "451",
     "county": "Tom Green",
     "margin_2024_pres": -48.0,
     "margin_2026_senate": -26.9,
     "swing": 21.1,
     "turnout_2022": 30744,
     "turnout_2024": 45438,
     "turnout_2026": 36169,
     "count_complete": false
    },
    {
     "fips": "497",
     "county": "Wise",
     "margin_2024_pres": -70.0,
     "margin_2026_senate": -52.3,
     "swing": 17.8,
     "turnout_2022": 27244,
     "turnout_2024": 38230,
     "turnout_2026": 30972,
     "count_complete": false
    },
    {
     "fips": "101",
     "county": "Cottle",
     "margin_2024_pres": -72.5,
     "margin_2026_senate": -60.4,
     "swing": 12.1,
     "turnout_2022": 494,
     "turnout_2024": 657,
     "turnout_2026": 535,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "441",
     "county": "Taylor",
     "margin_2024_pres": -49.8,
     "margin_2026_senate": -31.1,
     "swing": 18.7,
     "turnout_2022": 37163,
     "turnout_2024": 55386,
     "turnout_2026": 42673,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "011",
     "county": "Armstrong",
     "margin_2024_pres": -85.8,
     "margin_2026_senate": -75.6,
     "swing": 10.2,
     "turnout_2022": 816,
     "turnout_2024": 1109,
     "turnout_2026": 862,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "233",
     "county": "Hutchinson",
     "margin_2024_pres": -77.2,
     "margin_2026_senate": -60.2,
     "swing": 17.0,
     "turnout_2022": 5669,
     "turnout_2024": 8241,
     "turnout_2026": 6061,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "235",
     "county": "Irion",
     "margin_2024_pres": -75.6,
     "margin_2026_senate": -66.6,
     "swing": 9.0,
     "turnout_2022": 648,
     "turnout_2024": 868,
     "turnout_2026": 643,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "335",
     "county": "Mitchell",
     "margin_2024_pres": -71.3,
     "margin_2026_senate": -60.2,
     "swing": 11.1,
     "turnout_2022": 1678,
     "turnout_2024": 2513,
     "turnout_2026": 1861,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "501",
     "county": "Yoakum",
     "margin_2024_pres": -70.9,
     "margin_2026_senate": -37.8,
     "swing": 33.1,
     "turnout_2022": 1456,
     "turnout_2024": 2393,
     "turnout_2026": 1774,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "075",
     "county": "Childress",
     "margin_2024_pres": -76.1,
     "margin_2026_senate": -61.8,
     "swing": 14.2,
     "turnout_2022": 1608,
     "turnout_2024": 2272,
     "turnout_2026": 1685,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "171",
     "county": "Gillespie",
     "margin_2024_pres": -60.9,
     "margin_2026_senate": -46.6,
     "swing": 14.4,
     "turnout_2022": 13549,
     "turnout_2024": 16482,
     "turnout_2026": 14747,
     "count_complete": false
    },
    {
     "fips": "125",
     "county": "Dickens",
     "margin_2024_pres": -70.3,
     "margin_2026_senate": -58.7,
     "swing": 11.6,
     "turnout_2022": 728,
     "turnout_2024": 993,
     "turnout_2026": 748,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "283",
     "county": "La Salle",
     "margin_2024_pres": -20.5,
     "margin_2026_senate": 16.8,
     "swing": 37.4,
     "turnout_2022": 1453,
     "turnout_2024": 2360,
     "turnout_2026": 1858,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "195",
     "county": "Hansford",
     "margin_2024_pres": -84.8,
     "margin_2026_senate": -64.2,
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     "turnout_2022": 1407,
     "turnout_2024": 1999,
     "turnout_2026": 1509,
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    {
     "fips": "375",
     "county": "Potter",
     "margin_2024_pres": -44.4,
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     "swing": 25.4,
     "turnout_2022": 20971,
     "turnout_2024": 32091,
     "turnout_2026": 25673,
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    },
    {
     "fips": "145",
     "county": "Falls",
     "margin_2024_pres": -44.7,
     "margin_2026_senate": -28.5,
     "swing": 16.2,
     "turnout_2022": 4599,
     "turnout_2024": 6276,
     "turnout_2026": 4925,
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    },
    {
     "fips": "193",
     "county": "Hamilton",
     "margin_2024_pres": -71.3,
     "margin_2026_senate": -58.5,
     "swing": 12.8,
     "turnout_2022": 3350,
     "turnout_2024": 4464,
     "turnout_2026": 3561,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "399",
     "county": "Runnels",
     "margin_2024_pres": -77.1,
     "margin_2026_senate": -63.0,
     "swing": 14.1,
     "turnout_2022": 3089,
     "turnout_2024": 4056,
     "turnout_2026": 3169,
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    },
    {
     "fips": "189",
     "county": "Hale",
     "margin_2024_pres": -58.0,
     "margin_2026_senate": -29.7,
     "swing": 28.3,
     "turnout_2022": 5876,
     "turnout_2024": 9278,
     "turnout_2026": 7536,
     "count_complete": true
    },
    {
     "fips": "407",
     "county": "San Jacinto",
     "margin_2024_pres": -65.3,
     "margin_2026_senate": -49.9,
     "swing": 15.4,
     "turnout_2022": 9376,
     "turnout_2024": 12789,
     "turnout_2026": 10407,
     "count_complete": false
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    {
     "fips": "131",
     "county": "Duval",
     "margin_2024_pres": -9.8,
     "margin_2026_senate": 36.7,
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     "turnout_2022": 3678,
     "turnout_2024": 4461,
     "turnout_2026": 3280,
     "count_complete": true
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    {
     "fips": "341",
     "county": "Moore",
     "margin_2024_pres": -67.1,
     "margin_2026_senate": -30.6,
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     "turnout_2022": 3345,
     "turnout_2024": 5359,
     "turnout_2026": 4111,
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    {
     "fips": "317",
     "county": "Martin",
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     "turnout_2022": 1409,
     "turnout_2024": 2083,
     "turnout_2026": 1478,
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     "turnout_2022": 6570,
     "turnout_2024": 9069,
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     "turnout_2022": 2464,
     "turnout_2024": 3492,
     "turnout_2026": 3078,
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     "turnout_2022": 418,
     "turnout_2024": 893,
     "turnout_2026": 694,
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     "turnout_2024": 1670,
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     "turnout_2024": 4201,
     "turnout_2026": 3392,
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     "turnout_2024": 23911,
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