---
title: "The Borderlands"
url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/
publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic)
published: 2026-11-05
updated: 2026-11-06
license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
credit: "Source: politic.design"
data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/data.json
pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/borderlands.pdf
---

Story 4 of 5 · Place · 3D · Midterms 2026

# The Borderlands

Texas swung 26 points in two years and every one of its 254 counties moved the same way. The border moved furthest.

By the politic.design data desk · 5 Nov 2026, updated 6 Nov 2026 · Preliminary counts

Trump won Texas by 13.7 points in 2024. On Tuesday James Talarico won its Senate seat by 12.1, by Decision Desk HQ's count, the first Democratic Senate win there since 1988. All 254 counties moved towards the Democrats. In Starr County the margin went from Trump +16 to Talarico +56, a 72-point swing. The four Rio Grande Valley counties went from R+4 to D+44 between them, and cast 41% more ballots than in the 2022 midterm.

It wasn't only the border. Twenty-eight counties flipped from Trump to Talarico, including Tarrant, Collin and Denton in the Dallas–Fort Worth suburbs and Brazoria and Jefferson on the Gulf coast. The smallest swings, six to eight points, came in the Panhandle. The open question is durability: the same valley swung hard the other way in 2024. With certified files we'll extend the relief back to 2016, so readers see a cycle rather than a single turn.

**Data:** Decision Desk HQ county results (2026 Senate, 2024 President, 2022 turnout); us-atlas county shapes. The comparison is Senate against President, so some of the swing is the candidates. 41 counties were still counting on 5 Nov.

**Key finding:** "Every one of Texas's 254 counties swung towards the Democrats in 2026; Starr County moved 72 points in two years."

### Texas, raised by its swing

**In short:** Each county is lifted by how far it moved toward Democrats between the 2024 presidential vote and this week's Senate vote. Taller means a bigger swing; colour shows who won it this time. Every county rose. Drag to turn; hover or tap a county.

drag to rotate

Decision Desk HQ county results as of 5–6 Nov. Swing = 2026 Senate margin minus 2024 presidential margin, in points.

## The data behind this page

### Data: counties

Every Texas county: 2024 presidential and 2026 Senate margins (positive = Democratic), swing and ballots. Source: Decision Desk HQ county results (TX US Senate 2026, President 2024), us-atlas counties-10m.

| fips | county | margin_2024_pres | margin_2026_senate | swing | turnout_2022 | turnout_2024 | turnout_2026 | count_complete |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 471 | Walker | -39.9 | -19.1 | 20.9 | 17347 | 25170 | 21628 | True |
| 047 | Brooks | 9.6 | 40.5 | 30.9 | 1951 | 2402 | 1813 | True |
| 117 | Deaf Smith | -51.7 | -15.0 | 36.6 | 2703 | 4286 | 3523 | True |
| 219 | Hockley | -66.3 | -45.9 | 20.4 | 5341 | 7987 | 6440 | True |
| 417 | Shackelford | -82.2 | -74.0 | 8.2 | 1039 | 1727 | 1279 | True |
| 451 | Tom Green | -48.0 | -26.9 | 21.1 | 30744 | 45438 | 36169 | False |
| 497 | Wise | -70.0 | -52.3 | 17.8 | 27244 | 38230 | 30972 | False |
| 101 | Cottle | -72.5 | -60.4 | 12.1 | 494 | 657 | 535 | True |
| 441 | Taylor | -49.8 | -31.1 | 18.7 | 37163 | 55386 | 42673 | True |
| 011 | Armstrong | -85.8 | -75.6 | 10.2 | 816 | 1109 | 862 | True |
| 233 | Hutchinson | -77.2 | -60.2 | 17.0 | 5669 | 8241 | 6061 | True |
| 235 | Irion | -75.6 | -66.6 | 9.0 | 648 | 868 | 643 | True |
| 335 | Mitchell | -71.3 | -60.2 | 11.1 | 1678 | 2513 | 1861 | True |
| 501 | Yoakum | -70.9 | -37.8 | 33.1 | 1456 | 2393 | 1774 | True |
| 075 | Childress | -76.1 | -61.8 | 14.2 | 1608 | 2272 | 1685 | True |
| 171 | Gillespie | -60.9 | -46.6 | 14.4 | 13549 | 16482 | 14747 | False |
| 125 | Dickens | -70.3 | -58.7 | 11.6 | 728 | 993 | 748 | True |
| 283 | La Salle | -20.5 | 16.8 | 37.4 | 1453 | 2360 | 1858 | True |
| 195 | Hansford | -84.8 | -64.2 | 20.6 | 1407 | 1999 | 1509 | True |
| 375 | Potter | -44.4 | -19.1 | 25.4 | 20971 | 32091 | 25673 | True |
| 145 | Falls | -44.7 | -28.5 | 16.2 | 4599 | 6276 | 4925 | True |
| 193 | Hamilton | -71.3 | -58.5 | 12.8 | 3350 | 4464 | 3561 | True |
| 399 | Runnels | -77.1 | -63.0 | 14.1 | 3089 | 4056 | 3169 | True |
| 189 | Hale | -58.0 | -29.7 | 28.3 | 5876 | 9278 | 7536 | True |
| 407 | San Jacinto | -65.3 | -49.9 | 15.4 | 9376 | 12789 | 10407 | False |
| 131 | Duval | -9.8 | 36.7 | 46.5 | 3678 | 4461 | 3280 | True |
| 341 | Moore | -67.1 | -30.6 | 36.5 | 3345 | 5359 | 4111 | True |
| 317 | Martin | -75.8 | -58.9 | 16.8 | 1409 | 2083 | 1478 | True |
| 293 | Limestone | -56.9 | -36.5 | 20.3 | 6570 | 9069 | 7245 | True |
| 507 | Zavala | 14.4 | 50.6 | 36.2 | 2464 | 3492 | 3078 | False |
| 079 | Cochran | -65.7 | -36.0 | 29.7 | 418 | 893 | 694 | True |
| 151 | Fisher | -63.3 | -51.1 | 12.1 | 1320 | 1829 | 1406 | True |
| 023 | Baylor | -77.1 | -65.7 | 11.4 | 1202 | 1670 | 1204 | True |
| 365 | Panola | -66.4 | -52.7 | 13.7 | 8083 | 11437 | 8560 | True |
| 237 | Jack | -82.3 | -68.8 | 13.5 | 3006 | 4201 | 3392 | True |
| 099 | Coryell | -40.7 | -19.3 | 21.4 | 15814 | 23911 | 18846 | True |
| 295 | Lipscomb | -79.6 | -67.5 | 12.1 | 929 | 1259 | 933 | True |
| 129 | Donley | -78.2 | -66.4 | 11.8 | 1108 | 1712 | 1265 | True |
| 013 | Atascosa | -43.3 | -14.9 | 28.4 | 12566 | 18442 | 14529 | True |
| 045 | Briscoe | -79.8 | -70.1 | 9.7 | 556 | 744 | 592 | True |
| 175 | Goliad | -60.2 | -47.0 | 13.3 | 3331 | 3984 | 3350 | True |
| 179 | Gray | -77.1 | -57.8 | 19.3 | 5193 | 7580 | 5498 | True |
| 191 | Hall | -73.4 | -61.0 | 12.4 | 820 | 1149 | 826 | True |
| 049 | Brown | -73.9 | -60.8 | 13.1 | 11838 | 16853 | 12946 | True |
| 165 | Gaines | -82.6 | -63.4 | 19.2 | 3856 | 6416 | 4786 | True |
| 027 | Bell | -16.2 | 5.1 | 21.4 | 86547 | 130557 | 110495 | False |
| 435 | Sutton | -67.1 | -47.6 | 19.5 | 1105 | 1400 | 1092 | True |
| 405 | San Augustine | -56.3 | -40.2 | 16.0 | 2762 | 3747 | 3077 | True |
| 269 | King | -91.1 | -84.5 | 6.6 | 91 | 135 | 116 | True |
| 463 | Uvalde | -33.4 | -2.4 | 31.0 | 7530 | 9769 | 8348 | True |
| 493 | Wilson | -53.7 | -35.6 | 18.2 | 19410 | 27270 | 21988 | False |
| 413 | Schleicher | -64.4 | -44.9 | 19.5 | 967 | 1108 | 915 | True |
| 437 | Swisher | -63.4 | -44.5 | 18.9 | 1542 | 2265 | 1714 | True |
| 345 | Motley | -88.8 | -80.6 | 8.1 | 474 | 650 | 516 | True |
| 305 | Lynn | -70.3 | -55.7 | 14.6 | 1301 | 2567 | 2122 | True |
| 327 | Menard | -66.5 | -49.9 | 16.6 | 768 | 1039 | 784 | True |
| 353 | Nolan | -59.2 | -39.5 | 19.8 | 3601 | 5114 | 3716 | True |
| 431 | Sterling | -85.9 | -67.9 | 17.9 | 414 | 629 | 449 | True |
| 169 | Garza | -72.6 | -52.0 | 20.7 | 1123 | 1599 | 1255 | True |
| 059 | Callahan | -77.6 | -64.3 | 13.3 | 5170 | 6985 | 5382 | True |
| 433 | Stonewall | -69.0 | -61.2 | 7.8 | 533 | 716 | 510 | True |
| 159 | Franklin | -68.9 | -55.1 | 13.8 | 3783 | 5310 | 4240 | True |
| 467 | Van Zandt | -74.8 | -60.9 | 13.9 | 20202 | 27935 | 22153 | True |
| 231 | Hunt | -55.5 | -33.9 | 21.6 | 31439 | 46703 | 37502 | False |
| 313 | Madison | -64.4 | -47.3 | 17.0 | 3888 | 5489 | 4288 | True |
| 221 | Hood | -66.0 | -52.4 | 13.6 | 27530 | 36538 | 30225 | False |
| 319 | Mason | -65.0 | -52.2 | 12.8 | 2000 | 2526 | 2158 | True |
| 183 | Gregg | -42.3 | -20.1 | 22.1 | 31495 | 46699 | 38041 | True |
| 211 | Hemphill | -75.8 | -56.2 | 19.6 | 1317 | 1612 | 1244 | True |
| 069 | Castro | -58.2 | -40.2 | 18.0 | 1373 | 2021 | 1542 | True |
| 461 | Upton | -77.0 | -54.4 | 22.6 | 986 | 1303 | 859 | True |
| 247 | Jim Hogg | 8.3 | 50.4 | 42.1 | 1578 | 1585 | 1351 | True |
| 285 | Lavaca | -76.1 | -65.6 | 10.5 | 8132 | 10486 | 8583 | True |
| 329 | Midland | -60.5 | -37.5 | 23.1 | 37623 | 58800 | 44039 | True |
| 267 | Kimble | -77.6 | -63.3 | 14.4 | 1857 | 2402 | 1971 | True |
| 065 | Carson | -81.2 | -67.0 | 14.2 | 2230 | 3172 | 2379 | False |
| 363 | Palo Pinto | -67.1 | -48.4 | 18.7 | 9525 | 13333 | 10377 | True |
| 279 | Lamb | -64.3 | -44.7 | 19.6 | 2815 | 4151 | 3279 | True |
| 133 | Eastland | -77.5 | -63.4 | 14.1 | 5913 | 8363 | 6320 | True |
| 265 | Kerr | -54.3 | -37.3 | 17.1 | 21737 | 28156 | 23426 | True |
| 303 | Lubbock | -39.5 | -16.5 | 23.0 | 80419 | 124972 | 104328 | False |
| 143 | Erath | -68.0 | -45.9 | 22.1 | 12351 | 18350 | 14107 | True |
| 459 | Upshur | -71.0 | -56.0 | 15.0 | 13969 | 19882 | 15492 | True |
| 031 | Blanco | -52.5 | -41.7 | 10.9 | 6966 | 8518 | 7557 | True |
| 003 | Andrews | -72.6 | -43.6 | 29.0 | 3604 | 6059 | 4145 | True |
| 243 | Jeff Davis | -21.3 | -4.8 | 16.5 | 938 | 1169 | 1011 | True |
| 275 | Knox | -68.5 | -49.9 | 18.6 | 947 | 1376 | 1007 | True |
| 299 | Llano | -60.9 | -49.8 | 11.0 | 11081 | 13622 | 11665 | True |
| 483 | Wheeler | -84.7 | -72.4 | 12.3 | 1598 | 2272 | 1690 | True |
| 107 | Crosby | -51.3 | -27.6 | 23.7 | 1193 | 1880 | 1490 | True |
| 311 | McMullen | -84.4 | -72.2 | 12.2 | 357 | 487 | 371 | True |
| 393 | Roberts | -92.5 | -84.8 | 7.7 | 437 | 570 | 453 | True |
| 263 | Kent | -76.4 | -63.3 | 13.1 | 331 | 445 | 368 | True |
| 091 | Comal | -45.5 | -29.2 | 16.3 | 77429 | 103465 | 89097 | True |
| 505 | Zapata | -22.4 | 40.7 | 63.2 | 3681 | 4871 | 3253 | False |
| 007 | Aransas | -55.7 | -42.6 | 13.1 | 9650 | 13028 | 10596 | True |
| 361 | Orange | -66.7 | -49.9 | 16.8 | 23853 | 36328 | 26299 | True |
| 495 | Winkler | -70.5 | -39.2 | 31.3 | 1193 | 1932 | 1339 | True |
| 253 | Jones | -73.2 | -56.0 | 17.1 | 4872 | 6946 | 5224 | True |
| 421 | Sherman | -88.2 | -62.5 | 25.7 | 634 | 872 | 704 | True |
| 071 | Chambers | -65.6 | -45.9 | 19.7 | 16227 | 24971 | 19453 | True |
| 199 | Hardin | -75.8 | -61.5 | 14.3 | 19055 | 28157 | 20922 | True |
| 217 | Hill | -64.4 | -46.2 | 18.2 | 11460 | 16703 | 13142 | True |
| 491 | Williamson | -2.4 | 20.3 | 22.8 | 224104 | 308163 | 278482 | False |
| 271 | Kinney | -50.5 | -28.7 | 21.8 | 1044 | 1419 | 1229 | True |
| 057 | Calhoun | -52.2 | -31.8 | 20.4 | 5441 | 7832 | 6319 | True |
| 139 | Ellis | -31.1 | -4.4 | 26.6 | 69977 | 99485 | 88524 | True |
| 077 | Clay | -79.6 | -67.9 | 11.7 | 4347 | 5906 | 4633 | True |
| 257 | Kaufman | -27.9 | 1.3 | 29.1 | 44092 | 69366 | 62251 | False |
| 155 | Foard | -65.3 | -53.1 | 12.2 | 499 | 545 | 407 | True |
| 085 | Collin | -11.1 | 12.1 | 23.2 | 359066 | 515167 | 457413 | True |
| 093 | Comanche | -74.0 | -57.8 | 16.2 | 4721 | 6544 | 5146 | True |
| 095 | Concho | -73.9 | -58.0 | 15.9 | 890 | 1198 | 993 | True |
| 103 | Crane | -72.7 | -40.3 | 32.4 | 1050 | 1387 | 1009 | True |
| 241 | Jasper | -66.6 | -51.5 | 15.1 | 11016 | 15839 | 11981 | True |
| 177 | Gonzales | -54.8 | -31.0 | 23.8 | 5500 | 7755 | 6689 | True |
| 245 | Jefferson | -8.9 | 13.2 | 22.1 | 58560 | 86272 | 72750 | True |
| 127 | Dimmit | 3.3 | 39.1 | 35.9 | 2632 | 3427 | 2688 | True |
| 037 | Bowie | -48.7 | -32.1 | 16.6 | 25563 | 36629 | 27696 | False |
| 043 | Brewster | -12.6 | 11.3 | 23.9 | 3549 | 4576 | 3808 | True |
| 111 | Dallam | -78.3 | -50.0 | 28.3 | 938 | 1447 | 1021 | True |
| 067 | Cass | -65.7 | -55.6 | 10.1 | 9781 | 14140 | 10836 | True |
| 149 | Fayette | -61.4 | -45.1 | 16.3 | 10354 | 13327 | 11183 | True |
| 053 | Burnet | -55.7 | -38.9 | 16.8 | 21306 | 28147 | 24246 | True |
| 391 | Refugio | -39.6 | -24.5 | 15.0 | 2238 | 3072 | 2404 | True |
| 357 | Ochiltree | -81.6 | -53.6 | 28.0 | 1971 | 3008 | 2328 | True |
| 321 | Matagorda | -50.5 | -29.4 | 21.2 | 9362 | 13308 | 10928 | True |
| 447 | Throckmorton | -83.3 | -69.9 | 13.4 | 643 | 900 | 618 | True |
| 001 | Anderson | -61.8 | -45.5 | 16.3 | 14023 | 19353 | 15257 | True |
| 055 | Caldwell | -14.4 | 15.7 | 30.1 | 11501 | 15686 | 14781 | False |
| 325 | Medina | -42.7 | -21.8 | 20.9 | 17620 | 24598 | 21237 | False |
| 173 | Glasscock | -88.2 | -78.8 | 9.4 | 534 | 663 | 557 | True |
| 261 | Kenedy | -46.8 | -11.9 | 34.9 | 140 | 158 | 159 | True |
| 499 | Wood | -69.7 | -59.0 | 10.7 | 18146 | 24381 | 19754 | False |
| 291 | Liberty | -61.6 | -28.1 | 33.5 | 19642 | 31316 | 25449 | True |
| 453 | Travis | 39.3 | 58.5 | 19.2 | 446108 | 580285 | 548521 | True |
| 339 | Montgomery | -45.5 | -22.2 | 23.2 | 214347 | 307134 | 258438 | False |
| 227 | Howard | -62.8 | -40.3 | 22.5 | 6089 | 9640 | 7052 | True |
| 021 | Bastrop | -18.4 | 10.9 | 29.3 | 29209 | 39788 | 36976 | True |
| 455 | Trinity | -67.0 | -53.1 | 13.9 | 5179 | 7374 | 5874 | True |
| 309 | McLennan | -30.9 | -8.5 | 22.4 | 70224 | 99490 | 83056 | True |
| 307 | McCulloch | -73.4 | -61.2 | 12.2 | 2453 | 3513 | 2664 | True |
| 039 | Brazoria | -19.7 | 5.4 | 25.1 | 109107 | 161950 | 141824 | True |
| 017 | Bailey | -61.1 | -34.7 | 26.4 | 1186 | 1740 | 1416 | True |
| 225 | Houston | -55.4 | -45.7 | 9.6 | 7078 | 9362 | 7447 | True |
| 411 | San Saba | -79.0 | -64.3 | 14.7 | 2090 | 2703 | 2186 | True |
| 377 | Presidio | 30.2 | 54.8 | 24.6 | 1758 | 1994 | 1878 | False |
| 347 | Nacogdoches | -38.8 | -13.2 | 25.6 | 17590 | 25470 | 21488 | True |
| 477 | Washington | -54.7 | -41.4 | 13.3 | 14202 | 18208 | 15480 | True |
| 097 | Cooke | -66.9 | -49.3 | 17.6 | 15396 | 20432 | 17142 | True |
| 487 | Wilbarger | -60.6 | -44.4 | 16.2 | 3026 | 4463 | 3385 | True |
| 289 | Leon | -76.7 | -64.7 | 12.0 | 6808 | 9060 | 7051 | False |
| 255 | Karnes | -58.1 | -38.1 | 20.0 | 3658 | 5075 | 4029 | True |
| 381 | Randall | -60.4 | -41.1 | 19.3 | 45967 | 66854 | 53195 | True |
| 123 | DeWitt | -67.0 | -54.0 | 13.0 | 5555 | 7824 | 6246 | True |
| 475 | Ward | -66.1 | -42.1 | 24.0 | 2279 | 3764 | 2554 | True |
| 485 | Wichita | -44.0 | -24.2 | 19.8 | 30130 | 44497 | 34327 | True |
| 489 | Willacy | -3.3 | 35.0 | 38.3 | 3676 | 5563 | 4645 | True |
| 419 | Shelby | -64.6 | -47.4 | 17.1 | 6671 | 9948 | 7489 | True |
| 259 | Kendall | -55.7 | -43.2 | 12.5 | 23064 | 29295 | 26064 | True |
| 343 | Morris | -51.2 | -37.5 | 13.7 | 3854 | 5433 | 4202 | True |
| 223 | Hopkins | -64.6 | -45.5 | 19.1 | 12070 | 16773 | 13282 | True |
| 397 | Rockwall | -40.9 | -22.5 | 18.4 | 43314 | 62251 | 53505 | True |
| 229 | Hudspeth | -46.6 | -15.0 | 31.6 | 809 | 1038 | 801 | True |
| 423 | Smith | -45.1 | -24.7 | 20.4 | 74603 | 103815 | 89060 | True |
| 215 | Hidalgo | -2.9 | 46.5 | 49.3 | 138582 | 217194 | 202520 | False |
| 041 | Brazos | -24.9 | 6.0 | 30.8 | 56723 | 91847 | 79867 | True |
| 051 | Burleson | -62.8 | -48.2 | 14.6 | 6820 | 9365 | 7799 | True |
| 119 | Delta | -69.7 | -55.2 | 14.5 | 1987 | 2658 | 2001 | True |
| 105 | Crockett | -53.9 | -29.3 | 24.7 | 1214 | 1417 | 988 | True |
| 287 | Lee | -60.4 | -42.5 | 18.0 | 6197 | 8413 | 6921 | True |
| 395 | Robertson | -52.1 | -32.5 | 19.6 | 6007 | 8154 | 6973 | True |
| 333 | Mills | -76.9 | -65.5 | 11.4 | 2058 | 2741 | 2128 | True |
| 301 | Loving | -78.4 | -61.2 | 17.2 | 79 | 97 | 67 | True |
| 403 | Sabine | -78.5 | -69.2 | 9.3 | 4088 | 5581 | 4262 | True |
| 015 | Austin | -62.7 | -46.1 | 16.6 | 11465 | 15379 | 12819 | True |
| 383 | Reagan | -69.4 | -38.4 | 31.1 | 653 | 949 | 701 | True |
| 389 | Reeves | -36.9 | 7.7 | 44.6 | 2123 | 3439 | 3099 | True |
| 439 | Tarrant | -5.1 | 19.2 | 24.4 | 566851 | 822680 | 728259 | False |
| 209 | Hays | 5.6 | 32.1 | 26.4 | 91423 | 125688 | 119693 | False |
| 409 | San Patricio | -36.4 | -12.7 | 23.7 | 17188 | 25572 | 20107 | True |
| 359 | Oldham | -84.3 | -71.4 | 12.9 | 723 | 974 | 744 | True |
| 371 | Pecos | -44.8 | -9.1 | 35.7 | 3504 | 4233 | 3339 | True |
| 385 | Real | -66.9 | -56.5 | 10.4 | 1475 | 1958 | 1505 | True |
| 113 | Dallas | 22.2 | 45.6 | 23.3 | 590309 | 848948 | 783308 | False |
| 355 | Nueces | -11.5 | 11.2 | 22.7 | 84986 | 121614 | 99851 | False |
| 387 | Red River | -61.7 | -48.3 | 13.5 | 4114 | 5796 | 4250 | True |
| 083 | Coleman | -79.0 | -69.1 | 9.9 | 3126 | 4155 | 3232 | True |
| 401 | Rusk | -59.4 | -40.3 | 19.1 | 15101 | 21702 | 17346 | True |
| 443 | Terrell | -55.1 | -38.9 | 16.1 | 377 | 405 | 339 | True |
| 457 | Tyler | -73.5 | -61.9 | 11.6 | 7057 | 9577 | 7210 | True |
| 469 | Victoria | -42.6 | -23.1 | 19.5 | 24096 | 35239 | 28167 | True |
| 479 | Webb | -2.2 | 47.3 | 49.5 | 43579 | 65845 | 58349 | False |
| 481 | Wharton | -51.8 | -34.7 | 17.1 | 11759 | 16452 | 12587 | True |
| 273 | Kleberg | -12.7 | 14.9 | 27.7 | 7138 | 10010 | 8159 | True |
| 201 | Harris | 5.5 | 33.0 | 27.4 | 1055924 | 1556310 | 1382875 | False |
| 197 | Hardeman | -72.7 | -58.3 | 14.4 | 1002 | 1405 | 974 | True |
| 351 | Newton | -66.6 | -54.8 | 11.8 | 4190 | 5749 | 4270 | True |
| 349 | Navarro | -51.8 | -29.1 | 22.7 | 13905 | 19829 | 16100 | True |
| 337 | Montague | -77.7 | -66.7 | 11.0 | 7797 | 11097 | 8637 | True |
| 163 | Frio | -24.6 | 11.3 | 35.9 | 3661 | 4933 | 3798 | True |
| 203 | Harrison | -50.6 | -34.7 | 15.9 | 20354 | 30226 | 24043 | True |
| 277 | Lamar | -61.1 | -45.6 | 15.4 | 14811 | 21236 | 16419 | True |
| 153 | Floyd | -65.0 | -41.0 | 24.0 | 1360 | 2089 | 1628 | True |
| 427 | Starr | -16.0 | 55.8 | 71.8 | 12190 | 16419 | 13082 | True |
| 429 | Stephens | -79.3 | -63.9 | 15.5 | 2607 | 3761 | 2784 | True |
| 369 | Parmer | -70.1 | -45.4 | 24.7 | 1620 | 2504 | 1975 | True |
| 315 | Marion | -52.5 | -41.4 | 11.1 | 3266 | 4714 | 3826 | True |
| 465 | Val Verde | -26.6 | 12.2 | 38.8 | 9033 | 14578 | 11641 | False |
| 141 | El Paso | 15.1 | 47.9 | 32.8 | 160996 | 251371 | 218490 | False |
| 081 | Coke | -79.6 | -67.2 | 12.4 | 1336 | 1814 | 1354 | True |
| 061 | Cameron | -5.8 | 38.5 | 44.3 | 74879 | 116122 | 102017 | True |
| 473 | Waller | -25.0 | -1.8 | 23.2 | 17337 | 27545 | 23751 | True |
| 025 | Bee | -39.9 | -13.6 | 26.2 | 6126 | 8789 | 7153 | True |
| 449 | Titus | -54.7 | -24.8 | 29.9 | 7026 | 10208 | 8735 | True |
| 063 | Camp | -53.6 | -34.5 | 19.2 | 3830 | 5242 | 4278 | True |
| 185 | Grimes | -60.3 | -43.8 | 16.4 | 10105 | 14043 | 11718 | False |
| 415 | Scurry | -73.6 | -58.4 | 15.2 | 3824 | 5720 | 4168 | True |
| 249 | Jim Wells | -15.5 | 15.4 | 30.9 | 9368 | 13268 | 10664 | True |
| 135 | Ector | -52.9 | -18.9 | 34.0 | 23653 | 42615 | 29474 | True |
| 379 | Rains | -72.9 | -61.6 | 11.4 | 4982 | 6554 | 5080 | True |
| 367 | Parker | -66.4 | -50.9 | 15.5 | 65424 | 90802 | 76140 | True |
| 503 | Young | -76.3 | -59.9 | 16.4 | 5228 | 8309 | 6560 | True |
| 373 | Polk | -58.9 | -45.9 | 13.0 | 17247 | 24285 | 17493 | True |
| 005 | Angelina | -52.0 | -30.4 | 21.6 | 23461 | 34419 | 27286 | True |
| 297 | Live Oak | -69.6 | -57.4 | 12.2 | 3765 | 5092 | 3855 | False |
| 115 | Dawson | -61.0 | -44.6 | 16.4 | 2283 | 3511 | 2572 | True |
| 207 | Haskell | -71.5 | -58.2 | 13.2 | 1589 | 2246 | 1623 | True |
| 445 | Terry | -65.2 | -43.3 | 21.8 | 2370 | 3419 | 2616 | True |
| 009 | Archer | -79.3 | -69.2 | 10.2 | 3747 | 5132 | 3996 | True |
| 213 | Henderson | -63.5 | -46.1 | 17.4 | 27697 | 38528 | 31073 | True |
| 035 | Bosque | -67.3 | -52.5 | 14.8 | 7336 | 9571 | 7720 | True |
| 205 | Hartley | -83.3 | -68.2 | 15.2 | 1468 | 2016 | 1530 | True |
| 087 | Collingsworth | -77.5 | -66.6 | 10.9 | 859 | 1201 | 950 | False |
| 425 | Somervell | -70.8 | -57.4 | 13.4 | 4037 | 5285 | 4302 | True |
| 089 | Colorado | -57.2 | -43.3 | 13.9 | 7497 | 9994 | 8353 | False |
| 161 | Freestone | -66.3 | -50.6 | 15.8 | 6377 | 9045 | 7307 | True |
| 033 | Borden | -91.5 | -83.3 | 8.1 | 297 | 387 | 306 | True |
| 109 | Culberson | -16.9 | 22.1 | 39.0 | 727 | 781 | 867 | True |
| 167 | Galveston | -27.4 | -5.9 | 21.5 | 109765 | 158933 | 134555 | True |
| 281 | Lampasas | -59.6 | -43.8 | 15.7 | 8263 | 11296 | 9161 | True |
| 137 | Edwards | -73.2 | -56.0 | 17.2 | 763 | 1005 | 805 | False |
| 187 | Guadalupe | -29.5 | -5.8 | 23.7 | 56521 | 85097 | 70924 | False |
| 073 | Cherokee | -62.7 | -43.8 | 18.9 | 14394 | 20502 | 16601 | True |
| 147 | Fannin | -67.4 | -51.7 | 15.7 | 11523 | 16385 | 12976 | False |
| 157 | Fort Bend | 1.6 | 28.6 | 27.0 | 246597 | 362259 | 331775 | False |
| 331 | Milam | -57.3 | -40.0 | 17.3 | 8190 | 11093 | 8608 | True |
| 029 | Bexar | 9.7 | 35.5 | 25.7 | 522884 | 757547 | 658445 | False |
| 251 | Johnson | -51.4 | -27.2 | 24.3 | 57467 | 80691 | 69924 | False |
| 121 | Denton | -13.2 | 8.4 | 21.6 | 312488 | 448729 | 395959 | True |
| 019 | Bandera | -61.9 | -51.5 | 10.4 | 10469 | 13592 | 10234 | True |
| 323 | Maverick | -18.5 | 41.1 | 59.6 | 9714 | 15743 | 12551 | False |
| 239 | Jackson | -70.8 | -54.3 | 16.5 | 4049 | 6329 | 4996 | True |
| 181 | Grayson | -54.3 | -37.4 | 16.8 | 46096 | 65888 | 53782 | True |


### Data: county_shapes

Projected county outlines used to draw the map (us-atlas, from US Census boundaries). Source: us-atlas counties-10m.

Full data in the JSON file: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/data.json (dataset "county_shapes").

Receipts (content hashes of the source files): sha256:b1d9ed90534f141a


---

## License and credit

Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well.

Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/borderlands/data.json