{
 "title": "The Receipt",
 "description": "Voters handed the president an itemised bill: tariffs, Iran, prices, enforcement. The news covered the items in a different order from the one voters ranked them in.",
 "url": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/",
 "published": "2026-11-05",
 "updated": "2026-11-06",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "politic.design",
  "url": "https://politic.design",
  "made_by": {
   "name": "Brantopic",
   "url": "https://brantopic.com/"
  }
 },
 "license": {
  "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)",
  "id": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
 },
 "credit": "politic.design",
 "suggested_credit": "Source: politic.design",
 "terms": "Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well.",
 "independence": "politic.design has no affiliation with any political party, candidate or campaign, in the US or anywhere else.",
 "status": "Preliminary: results are counted before certification (states certify in December 2026).",
 "notes": {
  "data": "NBC News/SSRS exit poll; AP Voter Poll; GDELT DOC 2.0 through Brantopic's collector and quasi-Poisson detector.",
  "key finding": "\"Voters who said tariffs hurt the economy, two in three of the electorate, backed Democrats 81–18.\""
 },
 "receipts": [],
 "downloads": {
  "html": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/",
  "markdown": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/index.md",
  "json": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/data.json",
  "pdf": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/the-receipt.pdf"
 },
 "datasets": [
  {
   "name": "bill",
   "description": "Net votes each top issue cost or earned Republicans: share naming it x 122.7M ballots x (D% - R%).",
   "source": "NBC News/SSRS exit poll, 3 Nov 2026",
   "columns": {
    "net_dem_votes_millions": "positive = net votes to Democrats"
   },
   "records": [
    {
     "issue": "State of democracy",
     "named_top_issue_pct": 33,
     "dem_pct": 79,
     "rep_pct": 20,
     "net_dem_votes_millions": 23.9
    },
    {
     "issue": "The economy",
     "named_top_issue_pct": 39,
     "dem_pct": 52,
     "rep_pct": 46,
     "net_dem_votes_millions": 2.9
    },
    {
     "issue": "Immigration",
     "named_top_issue_pct": 14,
     "dem_pct": 10,
     "rep_pct": 89,
     "net_dem_votes_millions": -13.6
    },
    {
     "issue": "Healthcare",
     "named_top_issue_pct": 8,
     "dem_pct": 67,
     "rep_pct": 31,
     "net_dem_votes_millions": 3.5
    },
    {
     "issue": "Foreign policy",
     "named_top_issue_pct": 4,
     "dem_pct": 47,
     "rep_pct": 50,
     "net_dem_votes_millions": -0.1
    },
    {
     "issue": "Crime",
     "named_top_issue_pct": 3,
     "dem_pct": 19,
     "rep_pct": 79,
     "net_dem_votes_millions": -2.2
    }
   ]
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  {
   "name": "ballots_cast_millions",
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   "source": "Projected national turnout",
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  {
   "name": "also_on_the_tab",
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   "source": "NBC News/SSRS exit poll",
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     "item": "Corruption a crucial or major factor",
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     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
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    {
     "item": "Cost of living a crucial or major factor",
     "voters_pct": 89,
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
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    {
     "item": "Economy \"not so good\" or \"poor\"",
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     "dem_pct": 70,
     "rep_pct": 28
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    {
     "item": "Tariffs hurt the economy",
     "voters_pct": 66,
     "dem_pct": 81,
     "rep_pct": 18
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    {
     "item": "Iran strikes: the wrong decision",
     "voters_pct": 63,
     "dem_pct": 83,
     "rep_pct": 15
    },
    {
     "item": "Immigration enforcement gone too far",
     "voters_pct": 58,
     "dem_pct": 90,
     "rep_pct": 8
    },
    {
     "item": "Finances worse than two years ago",
     "voters_pct": 44,
     "dem_pct": 75,
     "rep_pct": 23
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "kerb",
   "description": "House margin by swing group (who was still close).",
   "source": "NBC News/SSRS exit poll",
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     "group": "Didn’t vote in 2024",
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     "dem_pct": 70,
     "rep_pct": 25,
     "margin": 45
    },
    {
     "group": "Moderates",
     "share_pct": 41,
     "dem_pct": 66,
     "rep_pct": 32,
     "margin": 34
    },
    {
     "group": "First-time midterm voters",
     "share_pct": 9,
     "dem_pct": 65,
     "rep_pct": 33,
     "margin": 32
    },
    {
     "group": "Suburban",
     "share_pct": 45,
     "dem_pct": 59,
     "rep_pct": 40,
     "margin": 19
    },
    {
     "group": "Independents",
     "share_pct": 33,
     "dem_pct": 58,
     "rep_pct": 38,
     "margin": 20
    },
    {
     "group": "Latino men",
     "share_pct": 5,
     "dem_pct": 58,
     "rep_pct": 39,
     "margin": 19
    },
    {
     "group": "Iran war a major factor",
     "share_pct": 40,
     "dem_pct": 58,
     "rep_pct": 41,
     "margin": 17
    },
    {
     "group": "White men, college grad",
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     "dem_pct": 55,
     "rep_pct": 43,
     "margin": 12
    },
    {
     "group": "Income $50k–99k",
     "share_pct": 31,
     "dem_pct": 54,
     "rep_pct": 45,
     "margin": 9
    },
    {
     "group": "White women",
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     "dem_pct": 52,
     "rep_pct": 46,
     "margin": 6
    },
    {
     "group": "Economy the top issue",
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     "rep_pct": 46,
     "margin": 6
    },
    {
     "group": "Ages 45–64",
     "share_pct": 34,
     "dem_pct": 52,
     "rep_pct": 47,
     "margin": 5
    },
    {
     "group": "Men",
     "share_pct": 47,
     "dem_pct": 50,
     "rep_pct": 48,
     "margin": 2
    },
    {
     "group": "Some college, no degree",
     "share_pct": 19,
     "dem_pct": 50,
     "rep_pct": 48,
     "margin": 2
    },
    {
     "group": "Catholics",
     "share_pct": 20,
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     "rep_pct": 49,
     "margin": 1
    },
    {
     "group": "Ages 65+",
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     "rep_pct": 50,
     "margin": 0
    },
    {
     "group": "Associate’s degree",
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     "margin": 0
    },
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     "group": "Foreign policy the top issue",
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     "margin": -3
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    {
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    {
     "group": "White men",
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     "group": "Somewhat disapprove of Trump",
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     "margin": -30
    }
   ]
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   "name": "coverage_summary",
   "description": "90 days of US news coverage per topic, collected by Brantopic.",
   "source": "GDELT DOC 2.0 TimelineVolRaw via Brantopic",
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     "topic": "tariffs",
     "query": "(tariff OR tariffs) sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english",
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    },
    {
     "topic": "immigration",
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     "share_of_news_pct": 0.133,
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    },
    {
     "topic": "corruption",
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     "articles": 10515,
     "share_of_news_pct": 0.137,
     "busy_day_flags": 2
    },
    {
     "topic": "midterms",
     "query": "(midterm OR midterms) sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english",
     "articles": 43584,
     "share_of_news_pct": 0.566,
     "busy_day_flags": 2
    },
    {
     "topic": "democracy",
     "query": "(\"threat to democracy\" OR \"rule of law\" OR authoritarian) sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english",
     "articles": 5712,
     "share_of_news_pct": 0.074,
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    }
   ]
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  {
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   "source": "GDELT DOC 2.0 TimelineVolRaw via Brantopic",
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      {
       "title": "Early Exit Polls Show Voters See Midterms As A Rebuke On Trump Administration",
       "domain": "wrak.iheart.com",
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       "domain": "realradio.iheart.com",
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       "domain": "newsradio540.iheart.com",
       "url": "https://newsradio540.iheart.com/content/2026-11-03-early-exit-polls-show-voters-see-midterms-as-a-rebuke-on-trump-administration/"
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       "title": "Taiwan Lai calls on Indo - Pacific democracies to help maintain peace in National Day speech",
       "domain": "wboc.com",
       "url": "https://www.wboc.com/news/international/taiwans-lai-calls-on-indo-pacific-democracies-to-help-maintain-peace-in-national-day-speech/article_0ffdfc19-8d85-5aac-923e-44e14e433318.html"
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      {
       "title": "Confused by the judicial races ? Here are our LA County Superior Court endorsements",
       "domain": "dailynews.com",
       "url": "https://www.dailynews.com/2026/10/09/confused-by-the-judicial-races-here-are-our-la-county-superior-court-endorsements/"
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      {
       "title": "Taiwan Lai calls on Indo - Pacific democracies to help maintain peace in National Day speech",
       "domain": "newsday.com",
       "url": "https://www.newsday.com/news/nation/taiwan-national-day-lai-ching-te-w47437"
      },
      {
       "title": "Taiwan Lai calls on Indo - Pacific democracies to help maintain peace in National Day speech",
       "domain": "stardem.com",
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 ]
}