---
title: "The Receipt"
url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/
publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic)
published: 2026-11-05
updated: 2026-11-06
license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
credit: "Source: politic.design"
data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/data.json
pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/the-receipt.pdf
---

Story 2 of 5 · Motive · 2D · Midterms 2026

# The Receipt

Voters handed the president an itemised bill: tariffs, Iran, prices, enforcement. The news covered the items in a different order from the one voters ranked them in.

By the politic.design data desk · 5 Nov 2026, updated 6 Nov 2026 · Preliminary counts

Exit polls read like a receipt. Two-thirds of voters said tariffs hurt the economy, and they voted Democratic 81–18. Nearly two-thirds called military action against Iran the wrong decision (83–15). Four in ten said their family was worse off than two years ago (75–23). Only 37% approved of the president.

The second half of the story is Brantopic's. We ran its news collector over 90 days of US coverage (GDELT, 5 August to 4 November) for each item on the bill, and its anomaly gate, the same one that tells a client when coverage of their brand is unusual, flagged the days each issue broke out. That puts newsroom attention beside voter priority. The test: did coverage track what voters say decided their vote, or what campaigns paid to put on air?

The kerb chart covers the persuadable middle: the groups still within six points of even. In a 13-point national win, the close groups were men, people over 45, Catholics, voters with some college, and voters whose finances hadn't changed. These are the groups 2028 will be fought over.

**Data:** NBC News/SSRS exit poll; AP Voter Poll; GDELT DOC 2.0 through Brantopic's collector and quasi-Poisson detector.

**Key finding:** "Voters who said tariffs hurt the economy, two in three of the electorate, backed Democrats 81–18."

### The bill

**In short:** What each issue cost or earned Republicans, in votes. Voters named their top issue; each line is that issue's share of voters times how lopsidedly they voted. Issues that cost Republicans are charges, issues that won them votes are credits, and the total is the Democrats' winning margin.

#### Running total, issue by issue

#### Also on the tab · not added up, voters could tick several

### The kerb: who was still close

**In short:** Each dot is a group of voters; the further left, the more Democratic. Groups inside the shaded strip were within six points of a tie, so they're still up for grabs in 2028. Bigger dots are bigger groups.

### What the news covered, from Brantopic

**In short:** One cover per issue; hover a cover for a preview, or click or tap it to open the chart large. The line behind each cover is how much of the US news mentioned it each day from August to election day; amber dots are days Brantopic flagged as unusually busy. The line under the title is how much voters said the issue mattered.

Coverage counts from GDELT DOC 2.0, collected by Brantopic.

## The data behind this page

### Data: bill

Net votes each top issue cost or earned Republicans: share naming it x 122.7M ballots x (D% - R%). Source: NBC News/SSRS exit poll, 3 Nov 2026.

| issue | named_top_issue_pct | dem_pct | rep_pct | net_dem_votes_millions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State of democracy | 33 | 79 | 20 | 23.9 |
| The economy | 39 | 52 | 46 | 2.9 |
| Immigration | 14 | 10 | 89 | -13.6 |
| Healthcare | 8 | 67 | 31 | 3.5 |
| Foreign policy | 4 | 47 | 50 | -0.1 |
| Crime | 3 | 19 | 79 | -2.2 |


### Data: ballots_cast_millions

Ballots used to price the bill. Source: Projected national turnout.

Full data in the JSON file: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/data.json (dataset "ballots_cast_millions").

### Data: also_on_the_tab

Items voters could tick several of; not added into the bill. Source: NBC News/SSRS exit poll.

| item | voters_pct | dem_pct | rep_pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corruption a crucial or major factor | 91 |  |  |
| Cost of living a crucial or major factor | 89 |  |  |
| Economy "not so good" or "poor" | 75 | 70 | 28 |
| Tariffs hurt the economy | 66 | 81 | 18 |
| Iran strikes: the wrong decision | 63 | 83 | 15 |
| Immigration enforcement gone too far | 58 | 90 | 8 |
| Finances worse than two years ago | 44 | 75 | 23 |


### Data: kerb

House margin by swing group (who was still close). Source: NBC News/SSRS exit poll.

| group | share_pct | dem_pct | rep_pct | margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Didn’t vote in 2024 | 4 | 70 | 25 | 45 |
| Moderates | 41 | 66 | 32 | 34 |
| First-time midterm voters | 9 | 65 | 33 | 32 |
| Suburban | 45 | 59 | 40 | 19 |
| Independents | 33 | 58 | 38 | 20 |
| Latino men | 5 | 58 | 39 | 19 |
| Iran war a major factor | 40 | 58 | 41 | 17 |
| White men, college grad | 17 | 55 | 43 | 12 |
| Income $50k–99k | 31 | 54 | 45 | 9 |
| White women | 38 | 52 | 46 | 6 |
| Economy the top issue | 39 | 52 | 46 | 6 |
| Ages 45–64 | 34 | 52 | 47 | 5 |
| Men | 47 | 50 | 48 | 2 |
| Some college, no degree | 19 | 50 | 48 | 2 |
| Catholics | 20 | 50 | 49 | 1 |
| Ages 65+ | 36 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
| Associate’s degree | 11 | 49 | 49 | 0 |
| Foreign policy the top issue | 4 | 47 | 50 | -3 |
| Finances about the same | 38 | 46 | 52 | -6 |
| White men | 35 | 45 | 53 | -8 |
| White women, no degree | 19 | 41 | 57 | -16 |
| Small town or rural | 35 | 41 | 57 | -16 |
| Somewhat disapprove of Trump | 8 | 33 | 63 | -30 |


### Data: coverage_summary

90 days of US news coverage per topic, collected by Brantopic. Source: GDELT DOC 2.0 TimelineVolRaw via Brantopic.

| topic | query | articles | share_of_news_pct | busy_day_flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| tariffs | (tariff OR tariffs) sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 24391 | 0.317 | 0 |
| iran | ("Iran war" OR "strikes on Iran" OR "war with Iran") sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 26215 | 0.34 | 1 |
| cost_of_living | ("cost of living" OR inflation OR "grocery prices") sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 39954 | 0.519 | 2 |
| immigration | (deportation OR deportations OR "immigration enforcement") sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 10213 | 0.133 | 1 |
| corruption | (corruption OR bribery OR "pay to play") sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 10515 | 0.137 | 2 |
| midterms | (midterm OR midterms) sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 43584 | 0.566 | 2 |
| democracy | ("threat to democracy" OR "rule of law" OR authoritarian) sourcecountry:US sourcelang:english | 5712 | 0.074 | 2 |


### Data: coverage_daily

Daily article counts per topic (n) and all US articles that day (t), with Brantopic's busy-day flags. Source: GDELT DOC 2.0 TimelineVolRaw via Brantopic.

Full data in the JSON file: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/data.json (dataset "coverage_daily").

### Data: peak_headlines

Top headlines on each topic's busiest day. Source: GDELT DOC 2.0 via Brantopic.

Full data in the JSON file: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/data.json (dataset "peak_headlines").


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## License and credit

Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well.

Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/the-receipt/data.json