{
 "title": "Weight Transfer",
 "description": "Young and Hispanic voters moved furthest. The national balance moved mostly because white voters, men and people in their 30s and 40s moved, because there are more of them.",
 "url": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/weight-transfer/",
 "published": "2026-11-05",
 "updated": "2026-11-06",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "politic.design",
  "url": "https://politic.design",
  "made_by": {
   "name": "Brantopic",
   "url": "https://brantopic.com/"
  }
 },
 "license": {
  "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)",
  "id": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
 },
 "credit": "politic.design",
 "suggested_credit": "Source: politic.design",
 "terms": "Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well.",
 "independence": "politic.design has no affiliation with any political party, candidate or campaign, in the US or anywhere else.",
 "status": "Preliminary: results are counted before certification (states certify in December 2026).",
 "notes": {
  "data": "Group margins for 2020 and 2024 (presidential) and 2026 (House) as published in the reference chart, read to about a point. Weights are 2026 shares from the NBC News/SSRS exit poll.",
  "key finding": "\"Under-30s swung 33 points, but white voters moved the national balance nearly three times as far.\""
 },
 "receipts": [],
 "downloads": {
  "html": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/weight-transfer/",
  "markdown": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/weight-transfer/index.md",
  "json": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/weight-transfer/data.json",
  "pdf": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/weight-transfer/weight-transfer.pdf"
 },
 "datasets": [
  {
   "name": "groups",
   "description": "Each group's margin and its share of 2026 voters; the national margin is the share-weighted balance point.",
   "source": "Group margins for 2020 and 2024 (presidential) and 2026 (House) as published in the reference exit-poll chart, read to about a point; 2026 shares from the NBC News/SSRS exit poll",
   "columns": {
    "margin_*": "percentage points, positive = Democratic lead",
    "swing_since_2024": "points toward Democrats since 2024",
    "share_of_2026_voters_pct": "percent of the 2026 electorate"
   },
   "records": [
    {
     "group": "All voters",
     "category": "All",
     "margin_2020_pres": 4.4,
     "margin_2026_house": 13.1,
     "swing_since_2024": 15,
     "share_of_2026_voters_pct": 100
    },
    {
     "group": "Men",
     "category": "Gender",
     "margin_2020_pres": -5.7,
     "margin_2026_house": 2.1,
     "swing_since_2024": 18,
     "share_of_2026_voters_pct": 47
    },
    {
     "group": "Women",
     "category": "Gender",
     "margin_2020_pres": 12.8,
     "margin_2026_house": 21.8,
     "swing_since_2024": 13,
     "share_of_2026_voters_pct": 53
    },
    {
     "group": "White",
     "category": "Race",
     "margin_2020_pres": -13.1,
     "margin_2026_house": -4.3,
     "swing_since_2024": 12,
     "share_of_2026_voters_pct": 73
    },
    {
     "group": "Black",
     "category": "Race",
     "margin_2020_pres": 82.2,
     "margin_2026_house": 83.1,
     "swing_since_2024": 10,
     "share_of_2026_voters_pct": 9
    },
    {
     "group": "Hispanic",
     "category": "Race",
     "margin_2020_pres": 30.3,
     "margin_2026_house": 39.7,
     "swing_since_2024": 29,
     "share_of_2026_voters_pct": 10
    },
    {
     "group": "Asian",
     "category": "Race",
     "margin_2020_pres": 36.5,
     "margin_2026_house": 40.9,
     "swing_since_2024": 18,
     "share_of_2026_voters_pct": 4
    },
    {
     "group": "Other",
     "category": "Race",
     "margin_2020_pres": 2.1,
     "margin_2026_house": 19.8,
     "swing_since_2024": 18,
     "share_of_2026_voters_pct": 5
    },
    {
     "group": "18–29",
     "category": "Age",
     "margin_2020_pres": 25.9,
     "margin_2026_house": 41.1,
     "swing_since_2024": 33,
     "share_of_2026_voters_pct": 11
    },
    {
     "group": "30–44",
     "category": "Age",
     "margin_2020_pres": 10,
     "margin_2026_house": 26.2,
     "swing_since_2024": 24,
     "share_of_2026_voters_pct": 20
    },
    {
     "group": "45–64",
     "category": "Age",
     "margin_2020_pres": -4.6,
     "margin_2026_house": 3.9,
     "swing_since_2024": 13,
     "share_of_2026_voters_pct": 34
    },
    {
     "group": "65+",
     "category": "Age",
     "margin_2020_pres": -1,
     "margin_2026_house": 4.1,
     "swing_since_2024": 6,
     "share_of_2026_voters_pct": 36
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}