{
 "title": "Who Won the Convention",
 "description": "About six points of the Democrats' margin came from who showed up. The rest came from voters who changed sides or were voting for the first time.",
 "url": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/",
 "published": "2026-11-05",
 "updated": "2026-11-06",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "politic.design",
  "url": "https://politic.design",
  "made_by": {
   "name": "Brantopic",
   "url": "https://brantopic.com/"
  }
 },
 "license": {
  "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)",
  "id": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
 },
 "credit": "politic.design",
 "suggested_credit": "Source: politic.design",
 "terms": "Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well.",
 "independence": "politic.design has no affiliation with any political party, candidate or campaign, in the US or anywhere else.",
 "status": "Preliminary: results are counted before certification (states certify in December 2026).",
 "notes": {
  "data": "NBC News/SSRS exit poll (2024 recalled vote × 2026 House vote); turnout from Al Jazeera's tally of state data; AdImpact spending.",
  "key finding": "\"Among 2026 voters, Harris voters outnumbered Trump voters by five points; that turnout gap was worth about six points of margin.\""
 },
 "receipts": [],
 "downloads": {
  "html": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/",
  "markdown": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/index.md",
  "json": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/data.json",
  "pdf": "https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/who-won-the-convention.pdf"
 },
 "datasets": [
  {
   "name": "hall",
   "description": "Every 2026 voter in a 990-seat hall (about one seat per thousand voters), by 2024 vote and 2026 House vote.",
   "source": "NBC News/SSRS exit poll, 2026 House vote by 2024 presidential vote",
   "records": [
    {
     "vote_2024": "Voted Harris in 2024",
     "dem_2026_seats": 475,
     "rep_2026_seats": 10,
     "other_2026_seats": 5
    },
    {
     "vote_2024": "Voted Trump in 2024",
     "dem_2026_seats": 31,
     "rep_2026_seats": 400,
     "other_2026_seats": 9
    },
    {
     "vote_2024": "Didn’t vote in 2024",
     "dem_2026_seats": 28,
     "rep_2026_seats": 10,
     "other_2026_seats": 2
    },
    {
     "vote_2024": "Voted for someone else",
     "dem_2026_seats": 11,
     "rep_2026_seats": 6,
     "other_2026_seats": 3
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "fact_cards",
   "description": "The facts shown on cards in the hall, from across politic.design.",
   "source": "As cited on each story",
   "records": [
    {
     "category": "Exit poll",
     "fact": "Said tariffs hurt the economy (66% of voters)",
     "dem_pct": 81,
     "rep_pct": 18
    },
    {
     "category": "Exit poll",
     "fact": "Called the Iran strikes the wrong decision (63%)",
     "dem_pct": 83,
     "rep_pct": 15
    },
    {
     "category": "Exit poll",
     "fact": "Family finances worse than two years ago (44%)",
     "dem_pct": 75,
     "rep_pct": 23
    },
    {
     "category": "Exit poll",
     "fact": "Top issue: the state of democracy (33%)",
     "dem_pct": 79,
     "rep_pct": 20
    },
    {
     "category": "Exit poll",
     "fact": "Top issue: immigration (14%)",
     "dem_pct": 10,
     "rep_pct": 89
    },
    {
     "category": "Exit poll",
     "fact": "Top issue: the economy (39%)",
     "dem_pct": 52,
     "rep_pct": 46
    },
    {
     "category": "The kerb",
     "fact": "Men, 47% of voters, from R+16 in 2024 to",
     "dem_pct": 50,
     "rep_pct": 48
    },
    {
     "category": "The kerb",
     "fact": "Voters 65 and over, the closest age group",
     "dem_pct": 50,
     "rep_pct": 50
    },
    {
     "category": "New voters",
     "fact": "Sat out 2024, voted this time",
     "dem_pct": 70,
     "rep_pct": 25
    },
    {
     "category": "New voters",
     "fact": "First-time midterm voters (9%)",
     "dem_pct": 65,
     "rep_pct": 33
    },
    {
     "category": "Crossovers",
     "fact": "of Trump 2024 voters backed a Democrat for the House.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Turnout",
     "fact": "Harris voters outnumbered Trump voters in this electorate: about 6 points of margin.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Weight transfer",
     "fact": "Under-30s, up from D+8. They moved the national balance 3.6 points.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Weight transfer",
     "fact": "of the swing came from white voters, 73% of the electorate.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "The bill",
     "fact": "net votes the state of democracy cost Republicans.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "The bill",
     "fact": "net votes immigration won back for Republicans.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Blue wave",
     "fact": "Republican seats Trump won by under 10 points flipped.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Blue wave",
     "fact": "flips beyond Trump+15 came in redrawn North Carolina and Texas.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Borderlands",
     "fact": "Starr County, Texas, swung from Trump +16 to Talarico +56.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Borderlands",
     "fact": "Texas counties moved toward Democrats.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Coverage",
     "fact": "articles on the cost of living in 90 days, the most-covered issue.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Coverage",
     "fact": "of US news mentioned democracy, the top issue for a third of voters.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Brand Truth",
     "fact": "They swung most, but moved fewer votes than white voters.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Brand Truth",
     "fact": "Yahoo News, checked against the projected D+12 to D+14.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "The Senate",
     "fact": "votes for James Talarico in Texas, the most ever for a Texas Democrat.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Turnout",
     "fact": "of eligible voters cast a ballot, second only to 2018 in a century.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    },
    {
     "category": "Money",
     "fact": "in political ads, a record. Republicans spent $410m more.",
     "dem_pct": null,
     "rep_pct": null
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}