--- title: "Who Won the Convention" url: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/ publisher: politic.design (made by Brantopic) published: 2026-11-05 updated: 2026-11-06 license: CC-BY-4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) credit: "Source: politic.design" data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/data.json pdf: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/who-won-the-convention.pdf --- Story 5 of 5 · Turnout · 3D · Midterms 2026 # Who Won the Convention About six points of the Democrats' margin came from who showed up. The rest came from voters who changed sides or were voting for the first time. By the politic.design data desk · 5 Nov 2026, updated 6 Nov 2026 · Preliminary counts Turnout was 48.8% of eligible voters, short only of 2018 in more than a century. Maine (65.8%), Minnesota and Michigan led; West Virginia (33.3%) trailed. The exit poll asked people how they voted in 2024. Among this year's voters, Harris voters outnumbered Trump voters 49 to 44, even though Trump won the 2024 popular vote. That gap is the turnout story. We split the margin in two. With the 2024 mix of Harris and Trump voters and this year's loyalty rates, Democrats would have won by about 6. With the actual 2026 mix they won by about 12 in this sample. So roughly six points came from turnout, and the rest from switchers (7% of Trump voters backed a Democrat) and from 2024 non-voters, who broke 70–25. Then the money. A record $11.2bn in ads, with Republicans spending $410m more, and Texas's Senate race the most expensive non-presidential contest on record at over $560m. The spending didn't fill the stands for the side that spent more. **Data:** NBC News/SSRS exit poll (2024 recalled vote × 2026 House vote); turnout from Al Jazeera's tally of state data; AdImpact spending. **Key finding:** "Among 2026 voters, Harris voters outnumbered Trump voters by five points; that turnout gap was worth about six points of margin." ### Who won the convention **In short:** Every voter in one hall, 990 seats, so each seat is about one in a thousand voters. Sections are how people voted in 2024; seat and flag colour is how they voted this week. Cards pop up from random seats to say who sits there. "Only switchers" lights the people who changed sides or were new. Drag to turn it. drag to rotate Recalled 2024 vote in exit polls usually leans towards the winner, so the turnout split is an estimate to check against voter-file data (Catalist, L2) when it arrives in early 2027. Rows don't reach 100% because about 1% of voters gave no 2024 answer. ## The data behind this page ### Data: hall Every 2026 voter in a 990-seat hall (about one seat per thousand voters), by 2024 vote and 2026 House vote. Source: NBC News/SSRS exit poll, 2026 House vote by 2024 presidential vote. | vote_2024 | dem_2026_seats | rep_2026_seats | other_2026_seats | |---|---|---|---| | Voted Harris in 2024 | 475 | 10 | 5 | | Voted Trump in 2024 | 31 | 400 | 9 | | Didn’t vote in 2024 | 28 | 10 | 2 | | Voted for someone else | 11 | 6 | 3 | ### Data: fact_cards The facts shown on cards in the hall, from across politic.design. Source: As cited on each story. | category | fact | dem_pct | rep_pct | |---|---|---|---| | Exit poll | Said tariffs hurt the economy (66% of voters) | 81 | 18 | | Exit poll | Called the Iran strikes the wrong decision (63%) | 83 | 15 | | Exit poll | Family finances worse than two years ago (44%) | 75 | 23 | | Exit poll | Top issue: the state of democracy (33%) | 79 | 20 | | Exit poll | Top issue: immigration (14%) | 10 | 89 | | Exit poll | Top issue: the economy (39%) | 52 | 46 | | The kerb | Men, 47% of voters, from R+16 in 2024 to | 50 | 48 | | The kerb | Voters 65 and over, the closest age group | 50 | 50 | | New voters | Sat out 2024, voted this time | 70 | 25 | | New voters | First-time midterm voters (9%) | 65 | 33 | | Crossovers | of Trump 2024 voters backed a Democrat for the House. | | | | Turnout | Harris voters outnumbered Trump voters in this electorate: about 6 points of margin. | | | | Weight transfer | Under-30s, up from D+8. They moved the national balance 3.6 points. | | | | Weight transfer | of the swing came from white voters, 73% of the electorate. | | | | The bill | net votes the state of democracy cost Republicans. | | | | The bill | net votes immigration won back for Republicans. | | | | Blue wave | Republican seats Trump won by under 10 points flipped. | | | | Blue wave | flips beyond Trump+15 came in redrawn North Carolina and Texas. | | | | Borderlands | Starr County, Texas, swung from Trump +16 to Talarico +56. | | | | Borderlands | Texas counties moved toward Democrats. | | | | Coverage | articles on the cost of living in 90 days, the most-covered issue. | | | | Coverage | of US news mentioned democracy, the top issue for a third of voters. | | | | Brand Truth | They swung most, but moved fewer votes than white voters. | | | | Brand Truth | Yahoo News, checked against the projected D+12 to D+14. | | | | The Senate | votes for James Talarico in Texas, the most ever for a Texas Democrat. | | | | Turnout | of eligible voters cast a ballot, second only to 2018 in a century. | | | | Money | in political ads, a record. Republicans spent $410m more. | | | --- ## License and credit Free to reuse, adapt and republish, including commercially, by any outlet or person, as long as you credit politic.design as the source (with a link to the page where you can). Figures that politic.design took from third parties (exit polls, election results, Wikipedia, GDELT and others named on each dataset) stay under those sources' own terms, so credit them as well. Suggested credit: *Source: politic.design* (https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/). License: [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Machine-readable data: https://politic.design/midterms-2026/who-won-the-convention/data.json