Who Won the Convention
About six points of the Democrats' margin came from who showed up. The rest came from voters who changed sides or were voting for the first time.
By the politic.design data desk · 5 Nov 2026, updated 6 Nov 2026 · Preliminary counts
Turnout was 48.8% of eligible voters, short only of 2018 in more than a century. Maine (65.8%), Minnesota and Michigan led; West Virginia (33.3%) trailed. The exit poll asked people how they voted in 2024. Among this year's voters, Harris voters outnumbered Trump voters 49 to 44, even though Trump won the 2024 popular vote. That gap is the turnout story.
We split the margin in two. With the 2024 mix of Harris and Trump voters and this year's loyalty rates, Democrats would have won by about 6. With the actual 2026 mix they won by about 12 in this sample. So roughly six points came from turnout, and the rest from switchers (7% of Trump voters backed a Democrat) and from 2024 non-voters, who broke 70–25.
Then the money. A record $11.2bn in ads, with Republicans spending $410m more, and Texas's Senate race the most expensive non-presidential contest on record at over $560m. The spending didn't fill the stands for the side that spent more.
Who won the convention
In shortEvery voter in one hall, 990 seats, so each seat is about one in a thousand voters. Sections are how people voted in 2024; seat and flag colour is how they voted this week. Cards pop up from random seats to say who sits there. "Only switchers" lights the people who changed sides or were new. Drag to turn it.
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